photo by: Adobe Stock

A sales receipt is shown in this file photo.

We are about to find out whether World Cup visitors are going to produce a surge in business for Lawrence establishments. As we’ve reported, the Algerian team arrived at its Lawrence base camp earlier this week, and Kansas City will start hosting World Cup matches next week.

Expectations for what type of boost the World Cup will provide to the Lawrence economy have been all over the map, as they started high but are now falling as World Cup ticket demand has been softer than expected across the country. As I said, we shall soon see.

What’s already visible, though, is that Lawrence’s brick and mortar businesses could use a boost. At least, that’s the story local sales tax collections are telling.

Lawrence City Hall recently received its May sales tax check — which generally represents sales made from mid-March to mid-April — and the dollars are down from a year ago. Local sales tax collections were down 4.8% from the same period a year ago.

The drop also pushed Lawrence across a dividing line. Lawrence’s sales tax collections for the year to date are also now down compared to a year ago. Lawrence’s year-to-date collections are down 0.8% compared to the same period a year ago. Last month, sales tax collections for the year were still in positive territory, but the sparse May collections pushed the year into negative territory.

Of the 11 major retail markets we track in the state, Lawrence is now the only one that has posted a decline in retail sales for the year.

There continues to be one area where Lawrence is posting strong numbers. As we reported last month, the city is seeing significant growth in the special type of sales tax — called a use tax — that is charged on most online purchases. That trend continued with the May collections. For the month, the citywide use tax collections were up 8.8% compared to a year ago. Year-to-date citywide use tax collections are up 15.1%.

So, in summary, online sales are up but brick and mortar sales are down. During this last month, it was not an even swap for the city’s coffers. The citywide use tax for online purchases was up about $51,000 compared to a year earlier. The citywide sales tax on brick and mortar purchases was down about $135,000 compared to a year earlier. It was a month of trading quarters for dimes, and that doesn’t even take into account the fact that the online purchases have much less of a positive impact on the local economy, given that those online purchases generally are all benefiting businesses located outside of the city.

But, perhaps, a World Cup bounce is on the way.

There is a lot of room for Lawrence to bounce. Lawrence is underperforming the state both for the last month and for the entire year. In May, local sales tax collections statewide were down 0.5% compared to Lawrence’s 4.8% decline. For the year, local sales tax collections statewide are up 3.2% compared to Lawrence’s decline of 0.8%.

Given those numbers, it should come as no surprise that Lawrence’s sales tax performance ranks at the bottom of the list when compared to other major retail markets in the state. Here’s a look at the year-to-date numbers for sales tax collections of the state’s major retail markets:

• Manhattan: up 7.3%

• Lenexa: up 7.8%

• Kansas City Kan.: up 5.9%

• Sedgwick County: up 5.7%

• Shawnee: up 5.1%

• Salina: up 4.3%

• Overland Park: up 3.9%

• Olathe: up 3.5%

• Merriam: up 2.6%

• Topeka: up 1.8%

• Lawrence: down 0.8%