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An AdobeStock image shows models of homes.

Lawrence’s real estate industry overall is on pace for a losing year — especially after a tough July — but there may be news of improvement for one segment of the market: Home buyers.

While Lawrence home sales are down sharply thus far in 2026, the number of homes on the market is much higher than in past months, and there are even some limited signs that home prices are beginning to drop in the city.

Of course, it would come in handy if those potential buyers had a pile of cash because rising mortgage interest rates may be eating up any savings that come from a lower asking price. But still, the latest numbers in the Lawrence market are tilting more toward buyers than they have in years, according to the monthly report of the Lawrence Board of Realtors.

“We’re seeing the Lawrence market become a little more balanced, with more homes for buyers to choose from even as higher interest rates continue to slow some activity,” Erin Maigaard, president of the Lawrence Board of Realtors, said in the report.

For sellers and their real estate agents, though, the latest numbers are adding up to a year that is likely to be down in most key categories. The monthly report showed Lawrence home sales in July fell 12.2% compared to July 2025 totals.

For the year to date, the decline is even steeper. Through July, sales are down 14.6% and total 546 sales. That’s a drop of 93 homes sales compared to the same period a year ago.

Unless activity picks up significantly in the remaining months, 2026 is likely to become the first year in the last three where home sales have declined. Perhaps the bigger question is not whether Lawrence will finish the year with declining home sales, but whether the decline will be greater than what the Lawrence market experienced in 2023, the last time sales took a nosedive.

So far, 2023 is still on pace to be a tougher year than 2026. In 2023, home sales finished the year down by 20.7%, so 2026 totals aren’t yet on pace to hit that low. But with sales down more than 14% thus far, it also isn’t out of the question that 2026 may drop that far.

The 2026 downturn, though, is shaping up to be different in one key regard. Sellers this year are keeping their homes on the market, while the 2023 downturn partially was fueled by a shortage of homes on the market.

Lawrence real estate professionals still contend there aren’t enough homes for sale in the city, but a look at today’s numbers versus 2023 shows some key differences. Last month in Lawrence there were 216 homes for sale. In July 2023, there were just 121 homes for sale.

The larger number of homes for sale combined with cooling demand is seemingly having an impact on selling prices in the Lawrence market. Depending on which statistic you look at, selling prices are either rising moderately or slightly decreasing. The median selling price for a home thus far in 2026 was $330,000, which is up 1.6% from the same period a year ago.

If you look at the average selling price of a home, that statistic is actually down thus far in 2026. The average selling price through July of this year was $371,485. That’s down 0.5%, or about $2,000, from the average selling price at the same time last year.

I usually put more stock in the median selling price than the average selling price, given that the latter can be heavily influenced by one or two particularly high-priced homes on the market. Regardless, either number should be relatively welcome to potential buyers.

There’s no guarantee, though, that such moderate pricing trends will continue for the rest of the year. Rather, there is some indication in the monthly report that prices could be on the rise again. The report notes that the median listing prices of the 215 homes currently for sale in Lawrence is $399,000. That is a 24% increase over the median listing price of the 140 homes that were for sale at this time last year.

Unless sellers start dropping their asking prices, we might see a surge in average selling prices, even if we don’t see an increase in the total number of homes sold.

Buyers, though, may have some room to negotiate prices downward, especially if the number of homes for sale continues to increase. That may be one of the more important questions to watch for the remainder of the year: Will the number of homes for sale continue to rise?

This latest report notes that July was the fourth consecutive month that the number of homes for sale had increased in Lawrence. How long that streak will last is unclear, but July was an important month for another reason: It was the first time in the last three years that the number of active listings in Lawrence was above the 200-home mark.

Such increases are starting to occur in a larger number of markets, Maigaard said.

“That’s similar to what we’re seeing across much of the Midwest,” Maigaard said in the report. “Buyers have more options and room to negotiate, while homes that are priced well are still selling quickly.”

Other statistics from the July Board of Realtors report include:

• Sometimes the number of homes sold in Lawrence declines but the total dollar value of homes sold still increases, due to the rising selling prices. That hasn’t been the case thus far in 2026. The real estate industry is on track to have a true down year, where both the number of homes sold and the total dollar value of homes sold decline. Through July, sales volume totals about $202 million in Lawrence. That’s down from about $238 million, or 15%, from the same period a year ago.

• While buyers have more choices for homes, that hasn’t caused the speed of the market to slow down much. The median number of days a home is sitting on the market before it sells is seven days thus far in 2026. That’s up from six days during the same period a year ago.

• Early signs are pointing to August home sales also dropping. The number of contracts written in July was 75, down from 86 in July 2025. Those contracts are a good indicator of home sales that will become finalized in August.