Wet winter eases drought conditions

? A wet winter has significantly eased drought conditions throughout Kansas, and the Climate Prediction Center outlook for spring in the state remains favorable for more moisture, said state climatologist Mary Knapp.

About 45 percent of Kansas remained this week in some sort of drought designation, she said Thursday. That compares with the end of the growing season in October, when 80 percent of the state was in drought conditions ranging from abnormally dry to extreme drought.

“There are incredible moisture levels in western Kansas,” Knapp said, adding that that area has now been removed from any kind of drought designation.

While the drought may be broken in western Kansas for now, she said, the long-term deficits are still there as seen in low reservoir levels and very low stream flows. Also still to be determined is the amount of runoff, subsoil moisture recharge and spring weather patterns.

Only 1 percent of the state – areas along the Oklahoma border encompassing parts of Cowley, Sumner and Harper counties – was still listed in a severe drought.

About 22 percent of the state remained in the moderate drought category. That encompasses a tiny sliver in northwestern Kansas along the Nebraska border and parts of south-central Kansas, including Elk and Chautauqua counties.

“Basically Kansas is wetter than normal in an El Nino winter, which has certainly been the case, but the El Nino is fading,” Knapp said.

It’s been three years since the last El Nino, a warming of waters in the tropical Pacific. El Nino is often followed by La Nina, a cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific. Last year was a neutral period with neither El Nino nor La Nina.

The El Nino effects are expected to be neutral by late spring, Knapp said, but that is less of a concern for Kansas because the El Nino has a greater effect on weather patterns in the state during the winter.

Of far greater concern for Kansas is whether the La Nina phenomena returns because La Nina tends to be characterized here by hot, dry summers, she said.

“At this point we don’t know which of the trends will be the one that dominates,” Knapp said.

But the picture is certainly much rosier now than it was a year ago at this time.

The Climate Prediction Center’s drought outlook through April is for continuing improvement in the areas of Kansas that are still in drought categories. The precipitation outlook for February through April shows the state in wetter-than-normal pattern in all but the northeastern corner of the state, where there is an equal chance that it will be wetter or drier than normal.

Because the state has much more surface topsoil moisture in place this year, there is a better chance for a normal spring rain pattern, she said.