With Republicans getting hammered on the national level, Kansas Democrats should feel good about their chances this year of whittling into the GOP’s dominance of the state.

Right?

Right. Democrats say they do feel good about their chances, but not because of the GOP’s political problems in Washington, D.C.

The battle between Republicans and Democrats in Kansas will be fought over state and local issues, political experts say.

Joseph Aistrup, head of the political science department at Kansas State University, warns Kansas Democrats not to get their hopes up just because Republicans are on the ropes in Washington.

“The fact that things aren’t looking that good nationally for Republicans doesn’t help Republicans in Kansas, but it isn’t going to lead to them losing here,” Aistrup said.

Kansas is one of the most fertile Republican states in the nation, and the November general election is eight months away, which is an eternity in politics, he said.

Paul Morrison, center, left the Republican Party to challenge Kansas Atty. Gen. Phill Kline in this fall's election. Morrison and other Kansas Democrats have high hopes for the party this fall. He and his wife, Joyce, left, attended a Washington Days event Friday night in Topeka.

In Washington, Republican rule has been pummeled in public opinion polls over the war, domestic spying, lobbyist scandals and ethics charges against former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas. National Democratic officials can’t wait for elections, envisioning gains in Congress and governorships.

But if Republican candidates lose in Kansas, it’s because of their own shortcomings, Aistrup said.

Larry Gates, chairman of the Kansas Democratic Party, and Tim Shallenburger, chairman of the Kansas Republican Party, agree.

“I don’t perceive there are any detrimental effects from the national level,” Shallenburger said.

“As a party, we are very optimistic,” Gates said. “We are going to focus on local issues. Kansans in the ’06 elections are going to be thinking about medical care, education, job creation and the overall economic well-being.”

Lay of the land

If the election hinges on Kansas issues – health care, school finance, crime, the economy, abortion, guns, stem cell research – both major parties claim victory. Here is the political program at the current time.

¢ Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, touted nationally as an effective Democratic governor from a Republican state, will probably face as her Republican opponent either Sen. Jim Barnett of Emporia or Robin Jennison, a former House speaker from west Kansas.

Sebelius enjoys greater name identification and a much larger war chest than either Republican. Her campaign reported last month it raised nearly $2 million in 2005; Barnett had $281,000, and Jennison had $48,000.

¢ Atty. Gen. Phill Kline, a Republican, faces a big-league challenge from Paul Morrison, a Republican who turned Democrat to take on Kline. The race exemplifies the deep split in the Kansas GOP over issues such as abortion and education funding.

Morrison is the chief prosecutor of Johnson County. Kline, who barely won in 2002 against a political unknown, has been criticized by some for focusing too much on an anti-abortion agenda. Former state GOP chairman Mark Parkinson is co-chairing Morrison’s run.

¢ Several Republicans are jockeying for position to face U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, a four-term Democrat whose district includes east Lawrence. Though Republicans make up a majority of voters in the district, Moore has been able to take advantage of the GOP split.

Democrat Nancy Boyda is likely to face U.S. Rep. Jim Ryun in the November election. Boyda spoke with media members before a reception Friday at the Kansas Democratic Party Washington Days event in Topeka.

If Sebelius and Moore are re-elected, Democrats can claim victory. And if Morrison defeats Kline, it’s a major Democratic gain.

¢ U.S. Rep. Jim Ryun – a five-term Republican who represents the west side of Lawrence, plus Topeka, Manhattan and southeast Kansas – may face Democrat Nancy Boyda in a rematch of their 2004 contest, which was a contentious battle but one that Ryun won handily, 55 percent to 42 percent.

Shallenburger is confident Republicans will maintain the seat. “There is not a Kansan out there who can beat Jim Ryun. We have as good a chance of beating Moore as they have of beating Ryun,” he said.

Aistrup said: “The question is, does Nancy Boyda have a snowball’s chance in hell? She would have to have a pretty big snowpack to survive the heat.”

¢ Elsewhere, Republican primaries in statewide races are taking shape between the party’s two wings. Two moderate Republicans face conservative challengers: Sen. Kay O’Connor of Olathe wants to unseat Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, and Rep. Eric Carter of Overland Park hopes to defeat Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger of Lawrence.

¢ And Kansas State Board of Education races may capture national attention as four conservative Republicans face voters for the first time since they supported science standards critical of evolution, and picked outspoken public schools critic Bob Corkins as the state’s new education commissioner.

The four are John Bacon, Iris Van Meter, Connie Morris and Ken Willard. All have attracted Republican primary opposition and, should they survive the primary, likely will face Democratic opponents.

Despite heavy criticism of that voting bloc on the education board, Shallenburger is confident they will win re-election.

“There are a very solid group of people out there who will rearrange their travel plans to vote for them,” he said.

¢ All 125 state House seats are up for re-election. Republicans hold a commanding 83-42 advantage in the House. Shallenburger said he expected little change from those numbers.

Democratic strategy

Gates said Democrats must gain the support of moderate Republicans and independents across the state.

“We are very open in asking for their support,” he said. “The Republican Party today is controlled by a very narrow faction that I don’t think is representative of a majority of Kansas views.”

Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University, said Sebelius and Moore relied on Republican support to such an extent that “low Republican turnout could hurt the Democrat.”

But Shallenburger said the national Democratic Party will hurt Kansas Democrats.

“The Howard Dean and John Kerry Democrats don’t sell well in Kansas,” he said referring to the Democratic Party chairman and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee.

But Gates said those Democrats weren’t on the ballot.

“We are going to run on a moderate, common-sense program that has been embodied by the policies of the Sebelius administration, Dennis Moore and the leadership of our legislative members,” he said.