Washington ? Since the Pentagon first began the process of closing military bases 17 years ago, Kansas has dodged a major hit.

This May, when the Defense Department posts the latest list of bases to cut or downsize, Kansas officials and members of Congress hope years of lobbying and planning will again spare the state’s four installations, which pump more than $2 billion into the Kansas economy.

What makes officials more nervous than usual this year, though, is how deep the cuts will be.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has estimated extra base capacity at more than 20 percent, which could mean nearly 100 of the nation’s 425 bases are at risk. A total of 97 bases were closed in all four previous rounds of closings from 1988 to 1995.

“They’ve already gone through the easy cuts,” said John Armbrust, executive director of the Kansas Governor’s Strategic Military Planning Commission, a group formed to lobby against downsizing any Kansas bases.

Since the commission was created last February, Armbrust has been actively showcasing the military value of Kansas’ four bases — Fort Leavenworth in the state’s northeast corner, Fort Riley near Junction City, McConnell Air Force Base in Wichita and Forbes Field south of Topeka. The commission analyzed each installation since the 1995 Base Realignment and Closure process to assess strengths and weaknesses and created a strategic plan on how to help each base.

“We talk to people in the Pentagon, people who are key decision makers and people involved in making the recommendations to the Secretary of Defense,” Armbrust said. “Part of our job is make sure they are using data that’s correct.”

Forbes at risk

In the current round of Base Realignment and Closure — commonly known as BRAC — President Bush will name a nine-member commission next month to review a list of closures the Pentagon will present by May 16.

Topping the list of vulnerable installations are aging facilities, small bases used by only one of the four services and large bases whose missions, training, ammunition or weapons are outdated.

“I think the places that are going to close are disproportionately the small facilities that have secondary missions serving a single service,” said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va.

While no one knows which bases will be on the list, Forbes Field south of Topeka appears to be the most vulnerable in the state, according to interviews with lawmakers. At least one Pentagon official has said Forbes, home to the Kansas National Guard’s 190th Air Refueling Wing, could be expendable because McConnell Air Force Base also is a major air refueling site.

“The base out of Forbes is always the one we’re working on the most,” said Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan. “We’re trying to get some newer facilities there through the appropriations process.”

Working together

Kansas’ congressional delegation and Armbrust’s group have focused on doing as much “BRAC-proofing” as possible to help Forbes and the other bases survive. That means bringing in new missions, building new facilities and supporting several different branches of the armed forces — part of a new goal to set aside old rivalries and work together.

Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., and other members of Congress also have helped steer more than $460 million in new construction and programs to Kansas bases since 2001. For example, the new Lewis and Clark Center at Fort Leavenworth will provide advanced Army officer training. A new urban warfare training center is being built at Fort Riley.

Thompson said he considers Fort Riley and Fort Leavenworth as safe facilities because they are known as up-to-date training and education facilities. But he cautioned that just spending money won’t ensure security — after all, the Defense Department spends over $1 billion a day, Thompson said.

Questions have been raised about the future of McConnell because of uncertainty about its air refueling mission. McConnell was going to be assigned more KC-135 air refueling tankers beginning in 2007, but a scandal in 2003 surrounding the contract for the new tankers eventually put the project on hold.

Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-Kan., whose district includes McConnell, said the base still is well-positioned and won’t be on the closure list.

“The only one where we probably have a big challenge is Forbes,” Tiahrt said.

The nine-member BRAC panel will submit its final recommendations for closure to the White House by Sept. 8. By Nov. 7, the president will submit the plan to Congress, which has 45 days for an up-or-down vote.