In Bob Dole’s home state, his fellow Republicans haven’t lost an open governor’s race in 66 years.

But for just as long, those Republicans have been fighting each other. This year, the feuding has created a genuine opportunity for Democrats.

Republicans began the year in good shape, even though popular incumbent Gov. Bill Graves was kept from another term by the Kansas Constitution. Two-term Atty. Gen. Carla Stovall, also popular with voters despite having alienated conservatives, was the party’s leading contender.

Stovall’s clashes with GOP conservatives, particularly about her support for abortion rights, marked the latest incarnation of the historic rift between moderates and conservatives.

Still, though out of step with conservatives, Stovall won her two attorney general elections by wide margins and set herself up as the favored candidate for governor.

But Stovall dropped from the race in April, citing a diminished desire to run and leaving a field without a clear leader. The campaign leading up to Tuesday’s primary proves to be a three-way scrap.

Seeking the GOP nomination for governor are State Treasurer Tim Shallenburger, the conservative wing’s candidate; Senate President Dave Kerr and Wichita Mayor Bob Knight. Dan Bloom, a businessman and former Eudora school superintendent who was expected to receive few votes, withdrew from the race Friday night and threw his support to Knight.

“I think, probably, that we’ve got a really tight three-way race,” said James Sheffield, chairman of Wichita State University’s political science department. “It’s going to come down to turnout and who can get their voters to the polls.”

The GOP winner faces Democrat Kathleen Sebelius, the insurance commissioner, in November. Many Republicans didn’t think she could beat Stovall, but GOP squabbling and a healthy campaign fund have brightened her prospects.

Without a primary opponent, Sebelius raised $1.8 million for her campaign through late July in a state where $3 million would be a record for a governor’s race. Her numbers have dwarfed those of any GOP candidate.

State Democratic Chairman Tom Sawyer agreed that a race against Stovall would have been tough for Sebelius, though he thinks Sebelius would have won.

“It’s because Stovall had been on the ballot statewide,” he said. “It would have been two very strong, articulate women running against each other. Now it’s anybody’s guess who their nominee will be.”

Historical GOP advantage

Republicans contend that any one of the leading contenders still has a good chance of defeating Sebelius because of the GOP’s historical advantage in Kansas.

And Sheffield said: “Kathleen Sebelius will have her hands full. I suspect she’s smart enough to know that.”

In the governor’s race, the GOP contenders have been arguing about the state’s budget problems, which led legislators to increase taxes by $252 million this year.

Kerr, an architect of the tax package, has defended it as necessary to prevent cuts in education and social services, as has Knight. Shallenburger has promised not to increase taxes.

With Stovall out, few Kansans seemed excited about the race until the final days. The World Company Poll, released as the final week of campaigning began, said 20 percent of likely Republican voters still were undecided; some candidate polls had even higher percentages.

The media poll, conducted for the Lawrence Journal-World, 6News, World Online and other Kansas media organizations, said 32 percent of 427 likely GOP voters supported Knight; 27 percent, Shallenburger; 18 percent, Kerr; and 3 percent, Bloom. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.

Shallenburger released an internal poll showing him ahead. Kerr released one showing him and Shallenburger in a virtual dead heat, with Knight in third place.

The poll also showed Sebelius the likely winner in a race against any of the Republican candidates.

Turnout a question

It was clear the race still wasn’t settled and could hinge on whether undecided voters pick a candidate and go the polls, or just stay home.

“Every time we have an open governor’s race, we have a hot race,” said state GOP State Chairman Mark Parkinson.

Knight and Shallenburger, who insist they could have beaten Stovall, acknowledged that her exit was a defining moment in the race.

“She was perceived as the front runner,” Shallenburger said. “She had a lot of name ID. She wouldn’t have had to spend a lot of money to build that up.”

The last time a Democrat won a governor’s race without an incumbent was 1936, when GOP icon Alf Landon gave up the job to run for president.

Democrats have been elected governors since then, but always after a Republican incumbent had alienated members of his party.

Infighting has been part of GOP politics in Kansas at least since Teddy Roosevelt ran for president as a Bull Mooser in 1912. That year, Democrats captured the governorship and majorities in both legislative houses the last time all three happened at once.

Sebelius unseated an unpopular Republican to become insurance commissioner in 1994, then won re-election four years later.