photo by: Thad Allender/Journal-World File Photo

This file photo from 2006 shows a residential neighborhood north of Sixth Street and Wakarusa Drive in Lawrence.

The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau are out, and Lawrence was the only community of 40,000 people or more in Kansas that lost population last year.

Lawrence’s population loss wasn’t particularly steep. The Census estimated Lawrence’s population as of July 1, 2025 was 96,367 people. That’s down 74 people from the July 2025 population. The loss equates to a 0.08% decline.

While the number is not big, the fact that it is a negative number is noteworthy, given Lawrence’s history as a consistent source of population growth for the state. The negative number stood out this year, as nationally, mid-size cities showed the best population growth, according to an analysis by the Census Bureau.

That trend largely held true in Kansas. The state has only 10 cities with populations of 40,000 people or more, but nine of them posted growth during the last year. Here’s a look at those communities and their population and growth rates.

• Wichita: 400,987, up 0.85%

• Overland Park: 203,677, up 0.63%

• Olathe: 157,805, up 0.39%

• Topeka: 125,795, up 0.09%

• Lawrence: 96,367, down 0.08%

• Shawnee: 69,848, up 0.39%

• Lenexa: 65,506, up 2.05%

• Manhattan: 54,673, up 0.76%

• Salina: 46,094, up 0.23%

Lawrence’s drop in population was not a surprise. As the Journal-World reported, the Census Bureau came out with population estimates for counties in March. Those estimates showed Douglas County as a whole lost population, making it the only urban county in the state to lose population during the last year. Given that Lawrence makes up the large majority of the county’s total population, it was a near certainty that Lawrence would show a population loss when the Census released city totals.

However, it wasn’t clear that Baldwin City and Eudora’s growth would be sluggish. That was the case, though, according to Census Bureau estimates. Eudora actually lost population – 10 people – despite being just a short drive from the $4 billion Panasonic electric vehicle battery plant in De Soto. Most of Eudora is only a five-minute drive from that large facility, which is adding a significant number of jobs to the region. De Soto has seen a significant increase in population as the plant opened, but that growth hasn’t spread to its neighbor.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

The roads and sidewalk are in, and home construction has begun on a new Baldwin City neighborhood that features 1-acre building lots, pictured here on July 10, 2025.

In Baldwin City, the southern Douglas County community has been aggressively building new housing, but as of July 2025, that housing construction hadn’t produced much overall population growth. The Census Bureau says Baldwin City’s population grew by one person from July 2024 totals. That almost certainly is different now, as many of those houses that were under construction in July 2025 are now completed and occupied.

If you are keeping score at home, Lecompton – the county’s smallest community – was the big winner in Douglas County population growth. It had double the population growth of Baldwin City. It added two people to its ranks. Here’s a look at the figures for Douglas County’s three smaller communities.

• Eudora: 6,506 people, down 0.15%

• Baldwin City: 4,946 people, up 0.02%

• Lecompton: 572 people, up 0.35%

Lawrence’s slowdown in population coincides with the city posting new record lows in single family building permits in both 2024 and 2025. The Census Bureau report measured population from July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025, so the latest report overlapped with portions of both of the record-low building years in Lawrence.

During 2025, KU posted record enrollment numbers on the Lawrence campus, but the numbers weren’t enough to make up for the significant slowdown in the new housing market. As we’ve reported, Lawrence’s slump in single family housing construction has been deep and long. The city issued just 36 building permits for single family homes in 2025. That was well below the record low set in 2024, which had 57 single family permits. The previous low was set in 2022, with 79 permits.

Lawrence’s building permit records date back to 1956. They show that 2025 was only the fifth time that the city built fewer than 100 new single family homes, with the other years being 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2011.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

Construction crews pour the foundation for a new single-family home in the Beth’s Ranch neighborhood near Sixth Street and George Williams Way on July 7, 2025.

Other cities in the area have not had that problem. Several communities near Lawrence, posted some of the fastest growth rates in the state last year. Here’s a look at population totals for area communities that finished with growth rates in the top 40 for the state:

No. 3: De Soto: 7,083, up 7.92%

No. 5: Spring Hill: 10,777 people, up 5.9%

No. 13: Wellsville: 2,002 people, up 3.57%

No. 14: Basehor: 8,249 people, up 3.53%

No. 35: Lenexa: 60,506 people, up 2.05%

Lawrence’s growth trends do look different if you look at a five-year period instead of just the last year. Lawrence historically has been a consistently growing community in the state, and when looking back to growth since the 2020 Census, that shows up in the Lawrence figures. Lawrence has posted a 1.5% growth rate since 2020, with its population growing by 1,426 people since the 2020 Census. The 1.5% growth rate was the fifth fastest among the 10 communities of 40,000 people or more. Its middle-of-the-pack status means its growth rate is well behind Olathe’s top-ranked growth rate of 6.18%, but well ahead of Salina, which posted the largest population decline of the group, with a drop of 1.68% since 2020.

Lawrence’s five-year growth rate of 1.5% equates to an annual average growth rate of 0.3%. That is well below what Lawrence leaders were planning for at one point. As a recent investigative series by the Journal-World reported, Lawrence built more than $100 million of new water and sewer infrastructure with the belief that the city would have a significantly larger population than it does today.

In 2012, when the city was finalizing plans for a $74 million sewage treatment plant, it relied upon growth projections that showed Lawrence having a population of just less than 120,000 people by 2030. If Lawrence’s growth rate remains at its 2012 to 2024 level — 0.6% per year — the city won’t reach the plan’s projected population of 119,529 people until the year 2057. Lawrence’s last five years of growth, though, have been significantly slower, averaging 0.3% per year. If that growth rate becomes the new normal, Lawrence wouldn’t hit the 120,000 population mark until about 2088.

At the same time, several communities in the Lawrence area have posted some of the highest growth rates in the state during the last five years. Here’s a look at those communities, with their rank in the state, their total population, and their five-year growth rate.

No. 2 Spring Hill: 10,777, up 35.32%

No. 6 Basehor: 8,249, up 19.24%

No. 9 De Soto: 7,083, up 15.64%

No. 12 Gardner: 26,154, up 12.01%

No. 14 Tonganoxie: 6,208, up 11.47%

No. 22 Olathe: 150,0025, up 6.18%

No. 23 Lenexa: 60,506, up 5.39%

No. 30 Linwood: 432, up 4.10%

No. 32 Merriam: 11,509, up 3.86%

No. 35 Shawnee: 69,848, up 3.72%

No. 40 Overland Park: 203,677, up 3.26%

While the northeast Kansas area has a lot of the fastest growing communities in the state, the Wichita area actually has some of the very fastest growing cities. Three of the top five fastest growing cities during the last five years are Wichita suburbs. Maize has posted the top rate in the state, growing at a 36% rate since 2020. Goddard is No. 3 in the state at 30% and Bel Aire is No. 4 at 24%.