FILE - Argentina's Lionel Messi hoists the winning team replica of the FIFA World Cup trophy during a celebration ceremony for local fans after an international friendly soccer match against Panama at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina, March 23, 2023. (AP Photo/Gustavo Garello, file)

The powers that be at Lawrence City Hall aren’t expecting much from Lawrence shoppers in 2026.

At least, that’s how the city’s budget reads. The 2026 budget expects to collect $57.2 million in sales taxes this year. In 2025, the city collected about $56.3 million, according to figures from the state. In other words, the city is counting on just a 1.6% increase in sales tax collections this year.

No, your calendars are not wrong. This is the year the World Cup soccer tournament, and presumably thousands upon thousands of fans, are coming to Kansas City and Lawrence.

Despite the expected surge in visitors, Lawrence’s budget documents aren’t projecting a big bump in revenue. As the Journal-World has reported, past city budgets have gotten burned by sales tax projections that ended up being too aggressive, and now you are seeing a pretty conservative projection this year.

How conservative? Last year, which, of course, did not include any World Cup visitors (but did include the return of home KU football games), Lawrence posted an approximately 4% increase in sales tax collections. Lawrence expects its collections during a World Cup year to grow at less than half that rate.

The numbers are noteworthy, especially during this time of year. While the 2026 budget is already set, city commissioners soon will begin crafting the 2027 budget. It is shaping up to be a tough one. City staff is alerting commissioners a 3-mill increase in the city’s property tax rate probably will be required to fund expenses related to a new fire station – unless commissioners can come up with a way to cut millions from the city’s operations.

What happens in 2026, though, can have an impact on the 2027 budget. If the World Cup visitor surge does produce more than a 1.6% increase in sales tax collections this year, then the city will have an unbudgeted windfall of sales tax collections. If city commissioners are confident that is going to happen, they could create a 2027 budget that plans to use some of the expected 2026 windfall. Not that it would be a complete solution to the city’s 2027 budget situation – one-time World Cup money won’t be a permanent solution for fire station funding – but a 2026 windfall could relieve some 2027 budget pressures.

The big question might be whether city commissioners really believe the World Cup is going to provide a major boost to the Lawrence economy?

The assumption for months has been yes, the World Cup and its fanatic followers will produce a nice inflow of retail sales into the community. However, I am hearing some people who are becoming worried about whether that surge will be as big as expected. There’s been no official announcement of how many Lawrence rooms have been booked for the World Cup tournament dates. However, I have heard reliable rumblings that local hotels are not full, and some have more space available than expected.

That’s consistent with a report released last week by the American Hotel & Lodging Association, which surveyed members in World Cup communities. The survey found 80% of respondents have World Cup bookings below initial forecasts. The report found that in Kansas City, 85% to 90% of respondents reported bookings were below expectations, and many said bookings were below their normal summer season levels.

So, that’s something for Lawrence City Hall leaders to think about.

Lawrence’s latest sales tax numbers from the state also provide plenty of food for thought. On the one hand, they do give reason to believe that Lawrence will do better than a 1.6% increase in sales tax collections this year. Through April, Lawrence sales and use tax collections are up 3% from the same period a year ago.

But how they got there is interesting. Normally, I just report on traditional sales tax collections. However, this month I also looked at use tax collections, which are a special type of sales tax charged primarily when someone makes an internet purchase. Lawrence’s use tax collections are having a strong year. Revenue from the citywide use tax is up 18% – or about $450,000 – thus far in 2026.

Traditional sales tax collections – the type generated by sales made at brick-and-mortar stores – are in the dumps, though. Through April, Lawrence’s traditional sales tax collections are up just 0.1% compared to the same period a year ago. That’s despite the fact that Lawrence increased its sales tax rate from 1.55% to 1.6% in April 2025. Even with that increased rate, Lawrence’s sales tax collections have grown more slowly than any other major retail market in the state.

It also is well below the statewide average of 4.2% growth. Here’s a look at how Lawrence compares to other major retail markets in the state, thus far in 2026:

• Manhattan: up 9.7%

• Lenexa: up 7.6%

• Kansas City Kan.: up 7.6%

• Sedgwick County: up 7.0%

• Salina: up 6.1%

• Shawnee: up 5.9%

• Merriam: up 5.4%

• Olathe: up 5.2%

• Topeka: up 2.1%

• Lawrence: up 0.14%

• Statewide: up 4.2%

When you add it all up, I would say the outlook for 2026 is uncertain (which is why I would go broke as a fortune teller.) There is a chance, though, that city commissioners might be able to wait long enough to get a read on what the World Cup impact will be on Lawrence before they finalize the 2027 budget.

World Cup games are scheduled to be played between June 11 and July 19. Sales tax collections have about a 1.5-month delay in the reporting process, meaning that the sales tax report that comes out at the end of July would start to show some of the spending that occurred in the first half of June, which is when World Cup fans are expected to start arriving. The report that comes out at the end of August, would provide an even clearer picture of whether the economy has seen a big bump. Hopefully the “eye test” of what is going on around town will also provide leaders a sense of the impact before then.

Regardless, the City of Lawrence is scheduled to give final approval to its 2027 budget on Sept. 15, meaning that commissioners may want to keep the possibility of some last-minute adjustments on the table.

You don’t have to do much math to see why commissioners may be interested in waiting to see how the World Cup pans out for the local economy. Given that Lawrence sales tax collections are up 3% currently, it is not out of the question that they could go up by 6% once World Cup dollars start flowing.

A 6% increase instead of the city’s projected 1.6% increase would produce about a $2.4 million unbudgeted windfall in sales tax dollars that theoretically could be applied to the 2027 budget. If World Cup visitors produce a 10% boost in sales – something that was not thought unrealistic when it was announced that Lawrence would be home to a base camp – that would produce $4.7 million in unbudgeted sales tax revenue.

Numbers like those could be game changers for a tough 2027 budget. But, of course, numbers like those may never materialize. As the sports world says, that’s why they play the games.