photo by: Associated Press

A Lawrence Memorial Hospital nurse works at a drive-thru virus testing facility In Lawrence, Kan., Thursday, March 26, 2020. Tests are by appointment only. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

Updated 7:40 p.m. Thursday

I don’t know much about peaks, other than I reached my one for growth in the sixth grade and, some say, the one for intellect a year earlier. The one everybody is trying to measure now, of course, is when COVID-19 will peak so that I can get more than a peek inside my favorite hamburger joint.

A journalist — especially a hungry one — shouldn’t be the person to declare when a peak has arrived, so I won’t. But I will share some of the latest data. It sure appears we are in an important time period, in particular with the statewide numbers.

Most of Wednesday’s state news was focused on the political back-and-forth over the reversal of Gov. Laura Kelly’s ban on religious gatherings of more than 10 people. That constitutional debate overshadowed an important set of numbers: Wednesday was the most active day for COVID-19 in Kansas both in terms of number of new cases and deaths.

There were 146 new cases and 11 new deaths, according to the numbers from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment. Here is a chart listing the cumulative number of cases in Kansas since March 24:

• April 9: 1,106

• April 8: 1,046

• April 7: 900

• April 6: 845

• April 5: 747

• April 4: 698

• April 3: 620

• April 2: 552

• April 1: 482

• March 31: 428

• March 30: 368

• March 29: 319

• March 28: 261

• March 27: 202

• March 26: 168

• March 25: 126

• March 24: 98

When you do the math on that chart, the average number of new cases per day since April 1 is 78. The average number of new cases per day from March 24 through April 1 is 48. That makes for a tough week on a number of fronts, but it also may be a sign that we are reaching a peak. The next few days will tell a lot.

When you compare those statewide numbers with Douglas County numbers, the trends are stark. Here’s a chart of Douglas County cases, as reported to us via news releases from Lawrence-Douglas County Public Health.

• April 9: 38

• April 8: 38

• April 7: 38

• April 6: 36

• April 5: 33

• April 4: 32

• April 3: 31

• April 2: 31

• April 1: 30

• March 31: 26

• March 30: 22

• March 29: 22

• March 28: 22

• March 27: 18

• March 26: 13

• March 25: 10

• March 24: 6

The math on that chart shows the highest number of new cases in one day was five, and that happened on March 27. Since April 1, the average number of new cases reported has been one per day. From March 24 through April 1, the average number of new cases reported has been three per day.

What does it mean? The leader of Lawrence-Douglas County Public Health said it is reason for some optimism but no guarantee that we’ve seen the worst. Director Dan Partridge said local health care leaders are still “planning for a surge that is expected to begin in mid-to-late April.” But Partridge said the numbers do have the community’s unified command team overseeing the crisis “cautiously optimistic.”

“The position we are in right now and what we believe we can manage in our community is because of the serious mitigation that is happening,” Partridge told the Journal-World via email. “People are staying home, and they have made great sacrifices to follow recent public health orders in this effort to flatten the curve. We are grateful for this, and we ask the community to keep it up, because it’s working.”

Another number I’m watching is the hospitalization rate. On that front, there may be positive news for Kansas, but again, we seem to be at a critical period. Here are the percentages of cases statewide that have resulted in hospitalization, based on the data available to KDHE.

• April 7: 32.1%

• April 6: 32.7%

• April 5: 33.0%

• April 4: 33.7%

• April 3: 33.8%

• April 2: 33.4%

• April 1: 32.2%

• March 31: 30.9%

• March 30: 28.9%

• March 29: 27.6%

• March 28: 28.5%

• March 27: 20.0%

I don’t have data for Wednesday because the state acknowledged this morning that it made a data error in yesterday’s report, which showed hospitalizations had spiked to about 47%. But the state did release a new number today. It shows the hospitalization rate is now 31%. Assuming yesterday’s hospitalization rate also will show a decline once the data error is fixed, we’ve now had six consecutive days where the state’s hospitalization rate has fallen.

Yes, it is still early. There’s certainly no reason to unfurl the Mission Accomplished banner yet, but hope is still allowed these days. People, however, shouldn’t let a bit of hope cause them to ease up on social distancing or other such efforts, Partridge said.

“Now is not the time to let up,” he said. “Stay home except for essential trips, practice social distancing. It’s working.”