10 teams that can win it all: No. 2, Duke

This Duke team not overrated

Each week in this space, KUSports.com online editor Jesse Newell will take a statistical look at one of the 10 teams that has the best chance of taking this year’s NCAA title.

Team: Duke

Record: 26-5

AP/Coaches Ranking: 4th/4th

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 1st

Strengths

There are a lot of them. In fact, with Duke, it’s tough to know where to start.

The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Only one team in the last six seasons has ended the season in the top three in both categories. Any guesses? Actually, it was the 2007-08 Kansas Jayhawks, and we all know how that season turned out.

Offensively, Duke’s greatest strength is getting lots of shots toward the rim. The Blue Devils turn it over on just 16.2 percent of their possessions (10th nationally) and also rebound their own misses 40.6 percent of the time (seventh nationally). It doesn’t hurt that Duke is deadly from both the free-throw line (76.2 percent, eighth nationally) and three-point range (38.9 percent, 19th nationally).

Defensively, Duke doesn’t allow opponents to shoot it well. The Blue Devils are especially stingy from the three-point line, as opponents are making just 27.2 percent of their long-range shots (second nationally). A lot of times teams have a hard time even getting three-pointers up, as the opposition is averaging just 13.6 three-point attempts per game against Duke.

Weaknesses

Duke isn’t a great two-point shooting team, making 47 percent of its shots inside the arc (national average is 47.7 percent). The Blue Devils also don’t have the luxury of a deep bench, as reserves play just 24.9 percent of the team’s total minutes (307th nationally). Duke also is extremely dependent on its backcourt for scoring, as 48.4 percent of its points comes from the point-guard and shooting-guard positions.

Players to watch

Jon Scheyer is Duke’s best player, and it isn’t really close. The 6-foot-5 senior guard gives positive contributions in nearly every statistical category, posting 18.9 points, 5.2 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. He also picks up steals on 2.7 percent of the defensive possessions he’s in (395th nationally) and is accurate from both three-point range (40.9 percent) and the free-throw line (88.7 percent). Scheyer plays in 91.1 percent of Duke’s minutes (18th nationally) and averages just 1.4 fouls every 40 minutes (17th-lowest nationally), making him one of the most dependable players in college basketball this year.

Though 6-foot-8 junior Kyle Singler also is highly respected (17.2 ppg), perhaps overlooked is the significant contributions Duke gets from its other post players. Seven-foot-1 senior center Brian Zoubek is statistically the best offensive rebounder in the nation, pulling down 22.2 percent of his team’s missed shots. He’s also strong on the defensive boards, grabbing 23.6 percent of the opposition’s missed shots (60th nationally).

Six-foot-10 sophomore forward Miles Plumlee also has been a presence inside, snatching 22.7 percent of the potential defensive rebounds (85th nationally) and 11.9 percent of the potential offensive rebounds (147th nationally). Individually, both Plumlee and Zoubek play less than 43 percent of Duke’s total minutes.

Bottom line

A lot of times, because of a perceived East Coast bias, Duke is believed to have a team that is a bit overrated. This isn’t one of those years. Though the Blue Devils have five losses, they are still impressive because of their difficult schedule (fourth toughest according to KenPom) and also their ability to blow people out. Just four of Duke’s 28 victories this year have been by single digits, and the easiest way to be successful in close games is to not play them at all.

Duke’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies are off the charts, and the last team with such high marks (2008 Kansas) won a national title. The Blue Devils should be considered one of the few heavy favorites to win it all when the brackets are released next week.