The Wall Street Journal has pegged KU as the three seed most vulnerable to a first-round upset.

In an article titled “The Science of Upsetology,” KU would lose to North Dakota State 22.6 percent of the time, according to 10,000 computer simulations of the game run by sports forecaster AccuScore.

KU’s chance of losing Friday’s game is the highest among the top 12 seeded teams in the tournament, according to the rankings. While that may seem a little grim, especially given KU’s first-round upsets in recent history, it’s at least better treatment than the simulations gave Washington.

The fourth seed in the West region was given only a 51.9 percent chance of beating 13th-seeded Mississippi State.