Lawrence will be key election battleground
GOP has targeted area among Congressional districts to regain

Democrat Nancy Boyda and her husband, Steve, celebrate her victory over Republican Jim Ryun in the race for the 2nd Congressional District in this Nov. 7, 2006, file photo. Boyda rode the national wave that returned control of Congress to Democrats in 2006. The 2nd District includes west Lawrence.

President George Bush and then-Congressman Jim Ryun greet supporters at the Kansas Expo Center in this Nov. 5, 2006, file photo. Ryun is expected to run against Nancy Boyda to reclaim his congressional seat but first will face State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins in the August primary.
Topeka ? Expect millions of dollars in political ads and national party presence as Lawrence becomes one of the key election battlegrounds in the fight between Republicans and Democrats for control of the U.S. House.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has targeted 23 Democratic-held seats in its effort to regain a majority in the House.
Two of those targeted races include the 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts of Kansas, which bisect the city of Lawrence.
Most political observers agree the GOP’s best chance in Kansas is in the 2nd District, won in 2006 by U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Kan. The district includes west Lawrence, Topeka, Manhattan and much of southeast Kansas.
“In the 2nd district, it will be a race like we have never ever seen before,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University.
In addition to the political parties, issue advocacy groups will pour millions of dollars into the race, hoping to influence the outcome, he said.
Boyda toppled a 12-year incumbent and former Olympian Jim Ryun, a Republican from Lawrence, to win that seat.
“It was the perfect storm for her,” said Joe Aistrup, chairman of the political science department at Kansas State University. “A lot of things fell into place; her own hard work and tenacity and national forces helped propel her.”
Boyda rode the national wave that returned control of Congress to the Democrats in 2006, plus she was on the same ballot as Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat, who easily won re-election.
While Democrats seemed poised to do well nationally in the 2008 election, Aistrup said the 2nd district could go either way.
Ryun, who was one of the most conservative members of Congress, is seeking a re-match against Boyda, but faces State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins in the August Republican primary.
Since her election, Boyda has been the frequent target of NRCC news releases. But Boyda has said the constant barrage of criticism probably works to her advantage because voters are getting tired of partisan attacks.
Since taking office, Boyda has been active on military veterans, trade and national security issues.
The 2nd District race could also be affected by who the Democratic presidential nominee is. Aistrup said if U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is the nominee that could hurt Boyda because Clinton has high negative ratings in Kansas. He said U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and the winner of the Kansas Democratic Party caucus, has more support in Kansas.
Beatty said an Obama candidacy could increase youth turnout, which would probably help Boyda.
The NRCC also has targeted U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, D-Kan., in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes east Lawrence and all of Wyandotte and Johnson counties. State Sen. Nick Jordan, R-Shawnee, is running to challenge Moore.
But Aistrup and Beatty said Moore is in a good position to defend his place.
Moore has defeated Republicans from both conservative and moderate wings of the Republican Party.
In 2006, Moore defeated Chuck Ahner, 64 percent to 36 percent. In 2004, he defeated Kris Kobach, 55 percent to 43 percent; in 2002, Moore defeated Adam Taff, 50 percent to 47 percent; in 2000 he defeated Phill Kline, 50 percent to 47 percent; and in 1998 he defeated incumbent Vince Snowbarger, 52 percent to 48 percent.
“His victories are getting larger,” Aistrup said. “I think he has begun to establish enough of a base.”







