photo by: Adobe Stock

A sales receipt is shown in this photo.

With all of the sales tax collections from June and July in the books, it’s pretty clear that a massive World Cup boost didn’t happen in Lawrence. But, might it be worth watching for a Costco boost?

One assumes city leaders are hoping for that, because Lawrence is back to collecting less in sales taxes than it did a year ago.

As we reported, the city got a little bit of a bump in its August sales tax numbers, which reflect sales made from mid-June through mid-July, during the height of the FIFA World Cup. It was up 5.6% from the same period in 2025, but sales taxes were up more than that in other parts of the state. And, unlike Lawrence, those other metro areas like Salina and Sedgwick County weren’t hosting a national team and weren’t close to where the games were played, so it’s hard to say what the impact really was.

But back then, there was still the possibility that, due to reporting lags, some activity might show up in the September report, which captures sales from from mid-July through mid-August. Now, the September numbers are out, and not only did Lawrence’s sales tax collections not grow, they actually fell 1.9% from where they were this time last year. And, year-to-date, Lawrence’s tax collections are lower than last year’s as well.

Lawrence was one of only three major retail markets we track that saw a decrease in collections this September compared to last year, and it was barely doing better than the worst performer, Shawnee, which was down 2.0% from last year.

Here’s a look at how those retail markets did in this one-month reporting period:

• Kansas City: up 9.8%

• Salina: up 7.5%

• Manhattan: up 6.5%

• Merriam: up 6.2%

• Overland Park: up 4.9%

• Lenexa: up 4.7%

• Sedgwick County: up 3.5%

• Topeka: up 2.6%

• Olathe: down 0.2%

• Lawrence: down 1.9%

• Shawnee: down 2.0%

• Statewide: up 2.8%

Year-to-date, not much has changed for Lawrence. It was down 0.6% from 2025 in August’s report, and it’s down 0.7% in September’s. Just like in August, Lawrence was performing more poorly than any other major retail market in the state.

• Kansas City: up 5.9%

• Lenexa: up 5.7%

• Manhattan: up 5.2%

• Salina: up 5.0%

• Sedgwick County: up 4.7%

• Overland Park: up 4.1%

• Shawnee: up 3.0%

• Olathe: up 2.7%

• Merriam: up 2.6%

• Topeka: up 0.1%

• Lawrence: down 0.7%

• Statewide: up 2.9%

Even the numbers that relate to online sales are looking less favorable for Lawrence than earlier this year.

The last time we checked in on use taxes around the state was in June, and back then, Lawrence’s year-to-date growth was leading the markets we track at 17.6%. Use taxes are the types of taxes you pay when you buy from an out-of-state online retailer, and they can also reflect some other categories of out-of-state spending, like spending on construction materials.

As of the September numbers, Lawrence is no longer leading the state’s major retail markets in use tax collections. It’s just behind the Sedgwick County metro area, whose use tax growth has stayed steady for the year at a little over 13%. And there’s not as much difference between Lawrence’s figures and those of several other metro areas as there was a few months ago.

Here’s a closer look at those figures:

• Sedgwick County: up 13.4%

• Lawrence: up 13.0%

• Salina: up 11.6%

• Olathe: up 11.5%

• Merriam: up 10.1%

• Lenexa: up 9.2%

• Manhattan: up 7.7%

• Overland Park: up 6.1%

• Kansas City: up 5.0%

• Topeka: down 1.9%

• Shawnee: down 4.0%

• Statewide: up 7.2%

All of this might be problematic for the city’s budget. As we’ve reported, Lawrence budgeted only a 1.6% increase for sales and use tax collections in 2026, which was lower than some previous years assumed, but now the year-to-date sales tax collections aren’t even growing anymore. If Lawrence doesn’t see growth again by the end of the year, it won’t hit that projection.

That’s one more reason to be interested in the performance of Lawrence’s new Costco store. Expectations have been high that the store will draw in shoppers not just from Lawrence, but from other cities like Topeka and Manhattan, for which it will be the closest location.

The store opens its doors on Oct. 29, and any sales taxes it generates won’t show up immediately, but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on the figures to see if even a little of that activity is reflected by the end of the year.