Bring back Kmart.

And while you’re at it, how about a Dick’s Sporting Goods, Toys “R” Us, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, a grocery store at 23rd Street and O’Connell Road in southeast Lawrence, and definitely a North Lawrence grocery store. North Lawrence residents practically have that request stamped on their foreheads.

You’ll hear such a wish list if you walk the streets of Lawrence during this holiday shopping season. Now, city leaders are trying to figure out whether they should work harder to grant some of those wishes.

A new report out of Lawrence City Hall brings up lingering questions about the health of the city’s retail industry. The report, conducted by the city’s planning department, found that Lawrence nearly has gone a full 10 years with sales tax collections failing to keep pace with the rate of inflation. Plus, a key measurement of how well the city does at keeping shoppers at home and attracting shoppers from outside the community has fallen significantly over the last five years.

“There are some numbers in there to be concerned about,” said City Commissioner Rob Chestnut, who also chairs the city’s Retail Task Force.

The report

The city’s planning department recently released its 2010 Retail Market Report, the first city study of the retail industry since 2006.

On one hand, the report gives some indication that the retail industry is faring well during what has been tough economic times for merchants. The report found the vacancy rate for retail space — which includes stores, restaurants, car dealers and pretty much every other business that charges sales tax — was 7 percent. That’s lower than many national averages, which have been anywhere from about 7.5 percent to 10.5 percent.

Even Kirk McClure — a professor of urban planning at Kansas University and the chief critic of the city’s planning when it comes to retail matters — said a 7 percent vacancy rate “was not bad” if accurate.

But the report also found that you have to go back to the era of 1995-2000 to find a five-year period where the city’s sales tax collections have kept up with the rate of inflation. From 2005 to 2009, the city’s sales tax collections — once adjusted for inflation — have fallen by an average of 0.9 percent per year. From 2000 to 2005, adjusted sales tax figures fell by an average of 0.2 percent per year. Those numbers were markedly lower than the previous decade, when adjusted sales tax collections grew by 2.1 percent per year from 1995 to 2000 and by 3.7 percent per year from 1990 to 1995.

The report also highlights the fall in the city’s retail pull factor. The pull factor compares Lawrence’s retail spending per capita with the retail spending per capita of the state as a whole.

Back in 2006, Lawrence had all the signs of a community that attracted shoppers from a wide area. The city’s per capita retail spending was 12 percent higher than the statewide average. By 2009, Lawrence’s per capita spending had fallen to 1 percent below the statewide average.

That’s despite Lawrence still being the fifth-largest city in the state.

“I know we have some challenges by having larger communities on both sides of us,” Chestnut said, “but we have a lot of opportunities too with all the events we have and the quality downtown that we have.

“I just don’t think we have done a very good job as a community of leveraging what we have to offer.”

The debate

McClure agrees the city’s declining pull factor is troubling.

“It is clear that we’re losing money to outside forces,” McClure said. “I don’t think that can be denied.”

But the question of why certainly can be argued. In fact, it often is at Lawrence City Hall. New retail projects frequently are among the most controversial items city commissioners consider. Among the controversies have been a new SuperTarget on South Iowa Street, a Home Depot at 31st and Iowa streets, a Walmart at Sixth Street and Wakarusa Drive, and most recently a Lowe’s store near Sixth Street and Folks Road.

Each time, the question of whether Lawrence’s retail market is overbuilt comes up. (It came up during the recent Lowe’s debate, but that’s not the reason commissioners gave for denying the plan. Instead, they didn’t like the store’s proposed location.)

McClure frequently has argued Lawrence has too much retail space based on the low wages paid in the community. He contends that because Lawrence wages are generally below the statewide average, the amount of retail spending in Lawrence is below average. That makes it hard for stores in Lawrence to truly excel and become the type of destinations that will attract shoppers from outside the area, thus exacerbating Lawrence’s retail problems.

Critics, though, say that theory doesn’t account for Lawrence residents who leave the city because they want to shop at brand name stores that don’t exist in Lawrence. That argument was made frequently by people urging the commission to approve the Lowe’s plan. Chestnut also frequently has pointed to anecdotal evidence, such as the number of Douglas County license plates in the parking lot of the Costco store in Johnson County.

McClure doesn’t buy the argument that Lawrence residents are leaving in great numbers to shop at stores not in Lawrence. The bottom line, however, is that neither side has much hard data on the point.

That may change some in the future. The city’s Retail Task Force is asking city commissioners to seek proposals from consultants who would study what type of sales Lawrence’s retail market is losing. That report would provide detailed information on how Lawrence’s market performs in specific categories, such as home-improvement sales, women’s clothing, sporting goods and many others.

Commissioners haven’t yet set a date to consider that request.

On the streets

As Lawrence residents begin tackling their holiday shopping, many can cite a store or two they wish would come to Lawrence. But in about a dozen interviews — taking place everywhere from the parking lots of discount stores to outside the doors of the Post Office — it wasn’t clear how often Lawrence residents leave the city to shop.

About all that was clear is that Lawrence males either don’t shop or are unwilling to admit publicly that they do. Approach a Lawrence male on the street and ask him about shopping, and likely his eyes will become as glossy as a Macy’s Thanksgiving ad, he’ll mumble something about credit cards and begin popping blood pressure pills.

But among the women who answered, most said they do the vast majority of their shopping locally.

“I think we have an excellent group of shops,” said Karen Wycoff, who wished Wednesday that she was finishing up Christmas shopping but actually was just completing Thanksgiving purchases. “We don’t have a Macy’s or those types of stores, but that’s just the size of community we are.”

Other shoppers mentioned Lawrence’s size as a factor, and some indicated that they thought both groups — those saying Lawrence doesn’t have enough selection and those saying Lawrence doesn’t have enough money — may be right.

“I do go to Topeka quite a bit to shop at Kmart because I just don’t like Walmart,” said Wanda Dickey. “But you know what else? I also don’t shop much because I don’t have much money to spend these days.”