Washington — A year after Barack Obama’s election stirred broad hopes for change among American voters, persistent high unemployment and the spectacle of continued gridlock in Washington threaten Democratic dominance of the political landscape.
Tuesday’s defeats in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey not only ended a decade or more of Democratic gains in those states but signaled possible trouble ahead in the midterm elections at the national level.
At the same time, the loss of another Republican House seat in a special election — the fourth such defeat in the last two years — showed how bitter ideological conflict within the party could cripple the GOP’s prospects for a comeback.
Despite White House efforts to discount the importance of the loss of the only two governorships on the off-year ballot, especially in New Jersey, where Obama had campaigned heavily for embattled Gov. Jon Corzine, the implications were clear to other Democrats.
Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, a leader of the moderate-conservative “Blue Dogs,” called the result “a wake-up call for Congress. A tidal wave could be coming.”
His fellow Tennessean, Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, said that Obama “retains his personal popularity, but his policies, and those pushed by the congressional Democrats, are scaring the daylights out of people.”
Democratic pollster Peter Hart, in a memo to his clients, warned of the possible consequences of “the disappointment and disgust the American public feels toward Washington. It is as strongly negative as the period of 1979-80 and 1973-74.” Both those cycles saw wholesale changes in Congress, the Democrats benefiting in the latter and the Republicans in the former.
For Obama and the Democratic congressional leadership, the off-year results arrived at a moment when their fragile internal coalitions are facing severe tests. The White House is attempting to stage-manage a crucial vote-counting exercise in both the House and Senate to determine if Democrats can risk bringing landmark health care bills to the floor. And within weeks, Obama may precipitate a similar test of support on a new policy toward Afghanistan.
Former Republican Rep. Vin Weber said he sees the Democrats in “a difficult position. A year ago, they thought they were entering a new progressive era. It was 1932 again. But within a couple months, it began to turn around, and worries about spending and big government came to the fore. In New Jersey and Virginia, we’re seeing the voters return to a center-right agenda. But I think Obama and the Democratic congressional leaders are locked into that progressive agenda, and that leaves them in a risky position.”
Weber conceded that “the grassroots energy” fueling signs of a Republican comeback “can be destructive” when it is less well managed than it was in the two successful gubernatorial campaigns. In both New Jersey and Virginia, candidates with clear conservative histories and credentials, former prosecutors Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell, focused their races on their opposition to higher taxes and their proposals for attracting jobs.
On the other hand, the GOP civil war that broke loose in New York’s 23rd District special election resulted in the loss of a seat that had been Republican for more than a century. Democrats said they looked forward to many more instances next year where conservative icons such as Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck intervene against mainstream Republicans.
While that problem concerns Republicans, Democrats have a larger worry: the unemployment crisis that crippled John McCain and the Republicans in 2008 is hanging on — and now is being blamed on Democrats.
Exit polls in New Jersey and Virginia showed that the more worried voters were about keeping or finding a job, the more likely they were to vote Republican.
Last week, I heard the lead economist for a major New York bank predict that unemployment next November will still linger at 9.5 percent or more.
If that is the case, this week’s Democratic losses could seem minor by comparison.
Comments
LJWorld.com doesn’t necessarily condone the comments here, nor does it review every post. Read our full policy. Also, read about banned accounts and harassing comments.
cato_the_elder (anonymous) says…
The Democrat, until recently an independent, who won in New York's 23rd has opposed the public option in the health care debate, which got him elected. The Republican who dropped out was lauded by the Daily Kos until her star faded.
just_another_bozo_on_this_bus (anonymous) says…
This says more about the failure of democrats to seize the moment than it does about any resurgence by republicans. The Dems had bad candidates in both races, and the Repugs took advantage of the normal voter disinterest in off-year elections, even though neither of their candidates will offer any workable ideas-- just more of the same rhetoric that has created the current mess.
snap_pop_no_crackle (anonymous) says…
Axelrod's puppet will just pull some more "jobs saved or created" figures out of thin air to distract the kool-aid drinkers.
cato_the_elder (anonymous) says…
"...the failure of democrats to seize the moment..."? Consider this, Bozo, starting from the top of the chain of command: When the Bamster himself campaigns vigorously in Virginia and then truly leaves it all on the field in Democrat stronghold New Jersey, and the next thing you know his candidates get their clocks cleaned, I'd say that the moment has seized the Democrats.
JJE007 (anonymous) says…
You mean...
only Democrats are jobless?
The headline makes it sound like we're supposed to FEEL for political parties who are not happy with election results.
I'm tired of one political party blaming the other for the state we're in.
I'm tired of "politics"!
This is ridiculous!
This is horrible!
There is NO dialogue!
lounger (anonymous) says…
Um - Hello peeps with a memory loss-It was the republicans who drove this economy into the ground for eight years. Now the dems have only a year to try and repair it. Not so far but then again the american public has a VERY short attention span...