Palestinian militants in Gaza fired another missile into Israel on Tuesday. In recent weeks, Israel has responded to these attacks by assaulting Hamas fighters in Gaza and the West Bank.

Sound familiar? It should. This has been the status quo since Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2005.

Yes, but what about that war Israel fought in Gaza last December and January, the bloody conflict that took more than 1,200 lives and was intended to end the rocket attacks — forever? In hindsight, we can now see that it was a failure, a waste of time, resources and lives. Israel is worse off now than before it fought that war.

I’m not talking about the calls for war-crimes investigations, the new allegations of wanton killing of civilians in Gaza, or the diplomatic crises the nation faces as numerous nations turn away in anger. No, my point is that the offensive backfired. And one consequence is that Israel is far less able to make peace.

Think about it. After 22 days of attacks and bombardments intended to pacify Hamas and remove its ability to terrorize Israel with missiles, nothing has changed. The missiles continue, to this day. The army has shown itself impotent to stop them. But the situation is even darker than that.

Israel is about to inaugurate Benjamin Netanyahu, a right-wing prime minister who has no real interest in pursuing peace — if it involves an independent Palestinian state. After the Gaza fiasco, should anyone be surprised?

What happens if Israel does remove its West Bank settlements, withdraw its forces and grant the Palestinians an independent state, as the United States and the rest of the international community is demanding? What would keep Palestinians in this new state from firing missiles into Israel from the West Bank, just as they are now doing from Gaza?

If they did, wouldn’t Israel be just as powerless to stop those attacks as they are now in Gaza?

I am not offering this as a defense of Israel. I have spent more than five years working in that region, and in my view both sides have much to answer for. Neither is blameless. I, for one, would like to see Israel and the Palestinians separate themselves into two independent states. But the logic of this moment says that simply cannot happen.

The minute Washington begins pressuring the new Israeli government to begin peace talks, I can positively predict what Netanyahu will say. From Gaza, he will note, Hamas has fired missiles able to strike the outskirts of Ashkelon, a small town about 15 miles away. Fired from the West Bank, those very same missiles would be able to strike Israel’s international airport.

Years ago, I stood with Ariel Sharon on a West Bank bluff that overlooks the airport. He was making a similar point. “See how close,” he said, pointing to the runways just below us, so close it almost seemed you could reach out and touch them. As Netanyahu appoints his new ambassador to Washington, I imagine he is also hiring a contractor to build a multi-level viewing platform on this same bluff.

Over several weeks, Israel’s outgoing centrist government has been unable to make peace with Hamas. Talks, mediated by Egypt, collapsed. A cease-fire foundered over the failure to agree on a prisoner exchange to allow the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier Hamas has held since 2006. Meantime, Hamas has said quite publicly that it does not want Gazans to fire any missiles.

“They are being fired at the wrong time,” Hamas averred earlier this month. And yet, nearly 200 of them have hit since the offensive ended. So, Hamas is either dishonest or impotent — probably a bit of both. But from this, Israeli right wingers can continue to make the argument that peace agreements with Palestinians are worthless. Palestinians do not keep their word.

Most new presidents do not make grandiose promises to settle the Middle East conflict during the early days. But as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said this month, “we will vigorously pursue a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” Just rhetoric, perhaps. But at the same time, she appointed former Sen. George Mitchell as Middle East envoy. Asked about this Tuesday night, President Obama added, “we’re going to be serious from day one.”

Mitchell is in Jerusalem, where he is furnishing a permanent office. My suggestion: Set up a satellite office on that bluff overlooking the airport. You’re going to spend a lot of time there.

— Joel Brinkley is a former Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign correspondent for The New York Times and now a professor of journalism at Stanford University. His e-mail address is brinkley@foreign-matters.com.