Baghdad The U.S. military map in Iraq in early 2010: Marines are leaving the western desert, Army units are in the former British zone in the south and the overall mission is coalescing around air and logistics hubs in central and northern Iraq.
Meanwhile, commanders will be shifting their attention to helping Iraqi forces take full control of their own security.
The Pentagon has not released the full details of President Barack Obama’s plan to end America’s combat role in Iraq by Aug. 31 of next year, but the broad contours are taking shape.
Statements from military officials, U.S. government reports and interviews by The Associated Press with Iraqi and U.S. planners offer a wide-angle view of the expected American formation in Iraq when the pullout quickens early next year.
Between 35,000 and 50,000 soldiers are expected to remain in a transition period before all troops must leave by the end of 2011 under a joint pact. In his speech Friday, Obama outlined the roles ahead.
“Training, equipping, and advising Iraqi security forces as long as they remain nonsectarian; conducting targeted counterterrorism missions, and protecting our ongoing civilian and military efforts within Iraq,” he said at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina.
There should be little immediate change in the American presence in 2009.
The bulk of the current 138,000 U.S. troops are expected to remain until Iraq’s national elections scheduled for late this year. Maintaining security for the balloting is considered a top priority by the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, and other high-ranking Pentagon officials.
Then the pullout will accelerate.
The first significant shift could be with the 22,000 Marines in Anbar province, a broad wedge of western desert where insurgents once held sway over key cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi.
The Marines have already tested exit routes through Jordan with plans for a full-scale exodus during the “2010 calendar year,” said Terry Moores, deputy assistant chief of staff for logistics for Marine Corps Central Command.
The Marines could possibly leave a small contingent, but expect to turn over military duties to the Army.
The early exit from Anbar carries two important messages.
It’s part of Washington’s shift of military focus to Afghanistan. Obama plans to send 17,000 more soldiers and Marines to Afghanistan, to join 38,000 already fighting a strengthening Taliban-led insurgency.
Anbar also represents a critical turning point of the nearly six-year-old Iraq war. A U.S.-directed effort in late 2006 began to recruit and fund tribal leaders to join the fight against al-Qaida in Iraq and other insurgent groups — which were eventually uprooted in Anbar and began to lose their hold in and around Baghdad.
In the south, the U.S. Army is making plans to fill the void left by the departure this spring of 4,000 British troops based outside Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq and a hub of the nation’s southern oil fields.
Odierno has said a division headquarters — about 1,000 personnel — plus an undetermined number of troops would be sent to Basra. The transition is expected to begin in late March, and it’s likely a U.S. force will remain around Basra until the final pullout in 2011.
Basra is a proving ground for Iraq’s ability to handle security on its own. Iraq launched an offensive last year that — with U.S. help — crippled Shiite militia control in parts of the city. But the small British contingent has largely stayed out of direct security operations, leaving it mostly to Iraqi commanders.
During a tour of Basra on Friday, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said some military personnel will remain to train Iraq’s navy, but the primary British goal is humanitarian aid and development.
“We will focus upon cultural, economic and educational topics,” he told Basra Gov. Mohammed al-Waili.
Northern Iraq, meanwhile, poses the greatest uncertainties for the Pentagon.
Mosul — Iraq’s third-biggest city — remains one of the last havens for al-Qaida in Iraq and its streets are among the most dangerous in the country.
In Baghdad, the U.S. military is already making changes in anticipation of the first step of the withdrawal timetable: U.S. forces out of major cities by June.
The United States has handed over the Green Zone to the Iraqi government, closed forward operating bases and combat outposts in the city or turned them into smaller stations where U.S. troops work alongside Iraqi security forces.
But Camp Victory, a huge base on the outskirts of Baghdad in a former Saddam palace complex, will continue to serve as the U.S. nerve center in the capital.
A military official with knowledge of the military planning process told the AP that Camp Victory’s proximity to many Iraqi government ministries and the Baghdad International Airport make it a prime location for the U.S. military, and one they are not likely to give up anytime soon.