Reports suggest a move from recession to recovery

assemblyman Sam Bernat puts together a window at the Wallside Window factory in Taylor, Mich in this June 2 file photo. Orders to U.S. factories for durable goods, including computers and aircraft, increased by 1.8 percent in May for the second straight month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

? New signals the recession could be nearing a bottom emerged Wednesday in figures showing that orders to U.S. factories surged last month for everything from computers to aircraft and that a gauge of business investment rose by the most in nearly five years.

Still, an unexpected drop in new-home sales in May made clear that any rebound in the housing market, and the broader economy, likely will be long and slow.

Economists said the two reports showed an economy no longer in free-fall but still unable to mount a sustained recovery from the longest recession since World War II.

Hours after the Commerce Department figures were released, policymakers at the Federal Reserve decided to leave a key interest rate unchanged at a record low between zero and 0.25 percent, where it has been since December. The central bank repeated a pledge to leave rates low “for an extended period” to give the weak economy time to heal.

The 1.8 percent increase in May durable goods orders was far better than the 0.6 percent decline economists expected. It matched the April rise, with both months posting the best performance since the recession began in December 2007.

Orders for nondefense capital goods jumped 4.8 percent, the biggest increase since September 2004. That could signal that businesses have stopped trimming their investment spending.

The back-to-back monthly gains in orders for durable goods — items expected to last at least three years — were further evidence that a dismal stretch for U.S. manufacturers may be nearing an end. But analysts say any sustained rebound is months away.

Rebecca Blank, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs, cautioned against reading too much into the big jump in durable-goods orders because the data can be volatile. But she said the report appears to show that the recent plunge in activity has subsided.

“The $64,000 question is how long we will be in this flat period,” Blank said. “You don’t want to call too much of a recovery yet.”

Private economists also were cautious, in light of rising unemployment, record levels of home foreclosures and spreading global economic weakness that’s depressing U.S. exports.

Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight, was a bit more optimistic. He said the economy was nearing a turning point “from recession to recovery.”

Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods posted a 1.1 percent rise in May, also better than the expected 0.4 percent drop. Demand for transportation products rose 3.6 percent. That reflected a 68.1 percent jump in orders for commercial aircraft, a volatile category that had fallen 1.4 percent the previous month. The big increase in aircraft offset further weakness in the troubled auto sector.

Demand for motor vehicles and parts fell 8.1 percent in May, signaling disruptions from the bankruptcy filings at Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp.

Orders for machinery rose 7.7 percent last month. Demand for computers and related products surged 9.4 percent.

The overall economy has posted the worst six-month stretch in more than 50 years.

The government is scheduled to revise the first-quarter GDP figure today, but analysts expect the overall figure to stay at a decline of 5.7 percent.