Washington — The endless Democratic presidential campaign has lurched from irrelevance to trivia, triggering a near-universal call to bring it to a halt.
The two states that voted on Tuesday - Indiana and North Carolina - are so unimportant to Democratic chances of electing the next president that it is unlikely that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will make more than a token appearance there after one of them is nominated.
Unless John McCain butchers his campaign, he will be an odds-on favorite to continue the Republican winning streak in both states. Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and a host of earlier candidates failed to make them competitive.
In a sensible nominating system, these states would never become important battlegrounds. Lots of people complain that Iowa and New Hampshire enjoy disproportionate influence because of their place at the start of the process. But both are closely contested in November - not throwaways.
Indiana and North Carolina were doubly irrelevant this year, because the "issues" that Clinton and Obama were discussing in their two weeks there were some of the phoniest of this entire election cycle.
Obama was all but obliterated for that time by the huge media-fanned controversy over his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Wright's inflammatory comments were obnoxious, but they bore no resemblance to the rhetoric and the record of the Illinois senator. I'd like to know the kind of people Obama would bring into his White House, and where he would turn for a Cabinet, because there is so much uncertainty about his actual policies at home and abroad.
But Wright will clearly not be anywhere in that administration, so why waste a full fortnight on him?
But if Obama contributed to the Wright fiasco by his hesitancy in breaking with him, Clinton was worse. She flooded North Carolina and Indiana with phoniness - playing a drag version of Dennis Kucinich, a beer-drinking populist, not the honors graduate of Wellesley and Yale Law School that she is.
As if that were not enough, she joined McCain in promoting the idea of a gas tax holiday that would last just through the summer, a step that would guarantee no actual reduction in the price at the pump and could encourage more energy waste. The fact that this cockamamie idea had already been rejected not only by President Bush but by the Democratic speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, did not deter Clinton from promoting it as if it were a serious policy.
For all the factors that ought to diminish the importance of Tuesday's results, the political effect was to move Obama a significant distance down the road to nomination. He added to his delegate totals and, more important, the two largest remaining states are off the table, leaving Clinton without plausible places to recover.
The states that are left, including West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, are small in population and notably lacking in the kind of political prestige that would magnify their influence on the uncommitted superdelegates.
Since it began last year, this has been a fascinating campaign. The massive turnouts, especially on the Democratic side, augur well for their nominee. But as I talked to a variety of officials just before and after Tuesday's primary, the weariness with the process they expressed became stronger with each passing day.
In celebrating his big victory in North Carolina, Obama signaled that he was as tired of battling Clinton as most Democrats are of watching them. He was gracious to his opponent and plainly eager to move on to the general election campaign against McCain.
The optimists in his camp believe he may be able to wrap it up this month, but even if the fight goes longer than that, the outcome no longer seems to be in doubt.
The wobbles in Obama's performance this past month signal at least some of his vulnerabilities. But his strengths have been demonstrated many, many times. All of them will be needed in the challenge ahead.
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cato_the_elder (anonymous) says…
By all accounts, it appears that the Dems may have done it to themselves again. While Senator Obama has inspired many people within his own party, barring a major gaffe by Senator McCain he is not electable in a 50-state race against McCain. Senator Clinton is a much more formidable candidate among key voting groups that Senator Obama will not carry, but she will apparently not be able to capture the nomination. Since 1968, the Dems have been so caught up in left-wing ideology that with a few notable exceptions they can't see the forest for the trees. At least Republican primary voters have had the sense to run a moderate liberal who calls himself a conservative, and, other than his age (concerning which he will be skewered by leftists who otherwise profess to treasure all laws against age discrimination), possesses reasonable voter appeal. If he were to live up to his "maverick" reputation and ask Joe Lieberman to run with him, they would be elected and could begin a healing process that we have sorely needed since the 2000 election.
snap_pop_no_crackle (anonymous) says…
To heck with what the primary voters want, let the superdelegates decide the matter.
oldvet (anonymous) says…
"But Wright will clearly not be anywhere in that administration, so why waste a full fortnight on him?"I you listen to Michelle Obama talk, you know full well that Rev. Wright's influence and thinking will be very present in that White House.
gsandell (anonymous) says…
"you listen to Michelle Obama talk, you know full well that Rev. Wright's influence and thinking will be very present in that White House".--oldvet ____________You are so right oldvet. I still say that when couples marry in a church, they generally marry in the wife's church. My guess is that Wright was Michelle's pastor and Barack went along for the ride. When Michelle said "it was the first time she was proud to be an American" where did that thinking come from? Probably her upbringing. Rev. Wright will be alive and well in the White House with Michelle there.