As gas prices increase, auto deaths decline, study says

? High gas prices could turn out to be a lifesaver for some drivers. The authors of a new study say gas prices are causing driving declines that could result in a third fewer auto deaths annually, with the most dramatic drop likely to be among teen drivers.

Professors Michael Morrisey of the University of Alabama at Birmingham and David Grabowski of Harvard Medical School said they found that for every 10 percent increase in gas prices, there was a 2.3 percent decline in auto deaths. For drivers ages 15 to 17, the decline was 6 percent, and for ages 18 to 21, it was 3.2 percent.

Their study looked at fatalities from 1985 to 2006, when gas prices reached about $2.50 a gallon. With gas now averaging more than $4 a gallon, Morrisey said he expects to see a much greater drop – about 1,000 deaths a month.

With annual auto deaths typically ranging from about 38,000 to 40,000 a year, a drop of 12,000 deaths would cut the total by nearly a third, Morrisey said in an interview with The Associated Press.

“I think there is some silver lining here in higher gas prices in that we will see a public health gain,” Grabowski said. But he cautioned that their estimate of a decline of 1,000 deaths a month could be offset somewhat by the shift under way to smaller, lighter, more fuel-efficient cars and the increase in motorcycle and scooter driving.

Morrisey said the study also found the “same kind of symmetry” between gas prices and auto deaths when prices go down.

“When that happens, we drive more, we drive bigger cars, we drive faster and fatalities are higher,” he said.

Morrisey and Grabowski found a nearly identical relationship between gas prices and auto deaths in an earlier study that covered 1983 to 2000. The studies used auto deaths tabulated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which hasn’t yet released figures for 2007.

Clarence Ditlow, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety, said it makes sense that auto deaths would decline as driving decreases in response to rising gas prices.

“There are a whole bunch of factors that are influenced by higher gasoline prices – teenagers don’t have as much money, so you have the most risky drivers driving less; people are switching out of the bigger, older more dangerous vehicles, and people also know if they drive slower they’re going to save gasoline,” Ditlow said.

The Department of Transportation said last month that Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April.