Analysis: McCain’s win may lead to GOP nomination

Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., gives a double thumbs-up to the crowd during an election night watch party Saturday at The Citadel, in Charleston, S.C. McCain won the South Carolina GOP primary.

? John McCain claimed a sweet South Carolina victory that eluded him in 2000 – and, if history is a guide, may have set himself on course to become the GOP presidential nominee.

No Republican since 1980 has won the party’s nod without a triumph in the first-in-the-South primary.

“It just took us a while. That’s all. Eight years is not a long time,” McCain said in an Associated Press interview. He added: “It sure was nice to have a lot of our old friends be happier that we’ve won.”

Still, for all the talk of the past, McCain certainly doesn’t have the nomination locked up and this year’s race is far from conventional.

“I know it’s not easy and we’ve got a long way to go,” he acknowledged.

Indeed, the wide-open contest now turns to Florida, where over the next 10 days no less than three of his rivals – and perhaps more – will seek to knock him off his momentum-fueled pedestal. The extraordinarily diverse state votes Jan. 29 and offers a winner-take-all cache of 57 delegates. More than 20 states vote thereafter on Feb. 5, and the race may not be determined even then.

“We’re waiting for you,” said Rudy Giuliani, sending notice to his rivals that he’s lying in wait in Florida. The former New York mayor has yet to win a contest and has pinned his candidacy on the state.

McCain, for his part, said: “I’m very confident we’ll win in Florida.”

So appeared another candidate angling for that state.

“If you want the nomination and you want to win the presidency, you gotta get Florida,” Mitt Romney said, already in the state as he set the stakes and celebrated his win Saturday in barely contested Nevada. The former Massachusetts governor already had won Michigan, his native state, and largely overlooked Wyoming.

Mike Huckabee, the South Carolina second-place finisher, made clear he was going forward, declaring: “The path to the White House is not ending.”

Two weeks into state-by-state voting, the GOP nomination remains up for grabs. Three different candidates have won in the six states that have voted thus far.

South Carolina’s hard-fought GOP primary pitted Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and Iowa caucus winner, against McCain, the Arizona senator and New Hampshire primary victor enjoying a resurgence after his campaign nearly imploded six months ago. Each was out to prove he was more than a one-state wonder and looked for a much-needed Southern win to provide a burst of energy heading into Florida.

McCain appealed to voters across the political spectrum.

A survey of voters as they left polling stations for The Associated Press and the TV networks showed that people calling themselves Republicans, who dominated the South Carolina voting, were evenly divided between McCain and Huckabee. But McCain also won the backing of people who said they were independents and moderates.

McCain, a 71-year-old four-term senator, also won among older voters and people chiefly looking for an experienced candidate.

A former Vietnam prisoner of war with decades of military experience, McCain hoped his argument that he is the most qualified to be commander in chief during wartime as well as his staunch support of the Iraq war would resonate with voters. South Carolina is a state with a long military tradition, and McCain, to be sure, won among members of the military and veterans. He snared one-third of their votes to roughly one-quarter for Huckabee.