Economy lags; recession fears persist

? With every new day, there are increasing signs the economy is in danger of losing its grip.

Fresh fears about a recession accompanied Wednesday’s somber report from the Federal Reserve suggesting retailers, home builders and many manufacturers should brace for even more rough times ahead. Adding to the worries: More big banks reported losses and said people were having trouble making payments for everything from credit cards to cars.

The Fed’s snapshot of business conditions showed a national economy losing momentum heading into the new year and a future riddled with uncertainty. The persistent housing slump and harder-to-get credit are making people and businesses ever more cautious, it said.

Wall Street shivered. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 34.95 points.

The report “suggests that the economic slowdown is broadening, especially with respect to consumer spending and construction activity,” said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.

The Fed report was the unwelcome icing on a recent batch of economic indicators – ranging from a plunge in retail sales to a big jump in unemployment – raising concern that the country is heading for its first recession since 2001.

At the beginning of last year, many economists put the chance of a recession at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number say 50-50 or even worse. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street, thinks a recession is inevitable this year.

The Fed report said the economy did grow during the survey period – from the middle of November through December – but more slowly than during the late fall. Credit problems intensified in December as did troubles in the housing market. That threw Wall Street into new turbulence. The economy probably grew at a feeble pace of about 1.5 percent or less in the final three months of last year.