Relief from high fuel costs unlikely

Light sweet crude oil rose sharply to 18.52 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

? Oil’s meteoric rise to near $120 a barrel looks like more than just another economic bubble – growing demand and tighter supplies are likely to keep prices high. Some analysts say even $200 a barrel would not be out of the question.

The latest price surge – pushing crude to record heights in recent weeks, and to nearly double its level a year ago – has some key components of a classic bubble, when market prices climb far above their intrinsic value. The burst comes when investors realize the assets are overvalued.

But growing worldwide thirst for crude, in large part from the rapidly developing economies of China and India, means frustrated consumers probably won’t get any relief.

“We can do our homework, but prices are going to go where they want to go at this point,” said Jeff Spittel, an analyst at investment bank Natixis Bleichroeder Inc.

Americans who hoped to ride out temporarily high prices by carpooling or driving less may have to make those habits permanent. And because of the premium prices, oil companies may be willing to search out more oil in places they previously couldn’t afford to explore.

Oil came close to $120 a barrel Friday on news that a ship under contract to the U.S. Defense Department fired warning shots at two Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf. The markets were also weighing the effects of a pipeline attack in Nigeria and a looming refinery strike in Scotland.

Retail gas prices, which at times rise in tandem with crude oil, moved further into record territory near $3.60 a gallon.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries – which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s crude – insists it’s supplying more than enough oil.

Instead, many observers blame speculative traders for bidding up the price as a hedge against inflation and as protection from the sinking U.S. dollar. Some see that as evidence of a bubble.

It’s also becoming harder and more expensive for oil companies to find and tap new petroleum reserves – a troublesome scenario given forecasts that the world’s energy needs will escalate by more than 50 percent in the next two decades.