Washington ? It is gallows humor time for Republicans in Congress, where one lawmaker jokes, “There’s talk about us going the way of the Whigs,” the 19th-century political party long extinct.

“That’s not going to happen,” Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., hastens to add. But about a year before the 2008 election, the major leading political indicators point downward for a party turned out of power in 2006.

Fundraising for Republican campaign organizations lags. In the House, the party committee spent more than it raised in each of the past two months, reporting $1.6 million at the end of August and a debt of nearly $4 million. Democrats reported $22.1 million and a debt of slightly more than $3 million.

Candidate recruitment has been uneven, particularly in the Senate, where Republicans must defend 22 of the 34 seats on the ballot next year. Additionally, nine Republicans in the House and three in the Senate have announced plans to retire. In contrast, Democratic retirements total two so far.

“The Democrats will continue to be the majority party in the House and Senate, and Hillary Clinton will make history by being the first woman president” in 2008, predicts Rep. Ray LaHood, one of three Illinois Republicans to announce his retirement. What makes LaHood’s prediction stand out is his willingness to say it publicly.

Despite their difficulties, Republicans are not deep in the minority. A switch of 16 seats would give them control of the House; a change of one or two seats could deliver the Senate.

Despite the GOP’s worst defeat since the Watergate era, Republican Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma said recently, “We have more seats than Ronald Reagan had on his best day.”

But Cole’s job performance as head of the House GOP political arm is under internal challenge. In a recent private leadership meeting, Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, sought the dismissal of the group’s two top campaign aides, saying the committee lacked aggressiveness.

Cole refused and said he would quit first. Boehner, the party leader, backed down, at least temporarily, but may yet seek to install a senior aide at the committee. The officials who discussed the events did so on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to discuss private conversations.

LaHood and other Republicans say the change in fortunes is partly the result of historical cycles.

At the same time, President Bush’s approval is stuck in the mid-30s and the Iraq war remains unpopular.

Nor have Republicans’ ethics woes abated. Corruption investigations swirl around Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens and California Rep. John Doolittle. Idaho Sen. Larry Craig pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct last summer in an airport men’s room sex sting operation. Stevens and Doolittle deny all wrongdoing, as does Craig, who has asked a Minnesota judge to permit him to withdraw his guilty plea.

Polls, too, chart the decline of the Republicans. A recent Gallup poll reported that

59 percent of those surveyed have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party.

Despite their woes, some Republicans say they may have weathered the worst. The race for the 2008 presidential nomination may sort itself out as early as February, they say, giving the party a new face months before the elections.