Traffic stacks up along 23rd street Wednesday afternoon. A new Census Bureau report finds that the city's population has declined slightly, although traffic doesn't seem to have dropped off.

Century School 6-year-olds Luke Jacobs, left, and Garrett Vaughn share a towel to shield themselves from the rain as they wait in line with other students to enter the school after an afternoon at the Lawrence Outdoor Aquatic Center. The city has been planning for growth, but the latest Census Bureau figures show that Lawrence's population is slightly down.

The counting controversy is back.

New figures released today by the Census Bureau show Lawrence’s population is no longer growing like it used to, but rather is slightly declining.

The numbers estimate that Lawrence’s population on July 1, 2006, was 88,605 people. That is down 59 people – or less than one tenth of one percent – from 88,664 in 2005. The significance of the new numbers is that they represent a dramatic slowdown from Lawrence’s traditional growth rate of 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent per year.

City leaders, though, for the second year in a row are second-guessing the Census Bureau’s counting skills.

“That really doesn’t sound any more right to me than last year’s estimate did,” Mayor Sue Hack said. “Lawrence is still a dynamic, growing community. I’m convinced of that.”

The city successfully challenged the last set of Census Bureau estimates, which showed a similar decline for 2005. Hack said the city will take a strong look at challenging these estimates as well.

“It is important that we get these right,” said Hack, noting the estimates are often used to distribute federal funding.

City planners have estimated that in 2006, the city’s population grew at a rate of 1.1 percent, which is less than the community’s historical average – but is much better than the slightly negative growth rate being estimated by the Census Bureau. The city estimates the July 1, 2006, population was 89,690.

So who is right? Hanging in the balance is potentially a lot of money. That’s because the city is making a significant bet on growth by starting construction on an $87 million sewer plant to serve what is expected to be a significantly larger population in the years to come.

The city is counting on that larger population – along with new businesses – to pay for the new plant, which is being billed as the most expensive public construction project in the history of Douglas County. If the Census Bureau is correct and the slight population decline continues, the city will have thousands fewer households to help pay for the plant than they had anticipated. That means everybody’s sewer bills would have to go up more than expected to pay for the project.

City Manager David Corliss said the city would be taking another look at how large the plant should be and how quickly it needs to be completed.

“We’re not going to rush the project and we’re not going to oversize the project,” Corliss said. “There have been comments about how large a project we need, given that our local economy has slowed down some.”

But city leaders also are hesitant to pull back on the project. Several said the city can’t afford to gamble on uncertain growth numbers and ultimately be in a position where the city doesn’t have the capacity to provide sewer service to new development.

The city was able to successfully challenge the Census Bureau’s 2005 population estimate by presenting information on building permit data and utility bill data to the bureau. The Census Bureau uses a host of administrative records – such as tax returns, birth certificates and Medicare filings – to determine how many people live in a county. They then use building permit data to distribute that county population to each city.

Some Lawrence residents think the Census Bureau may have it right. Kirk McClure, an associate professor of urban planning at Kansas University and a frequent critic of the city’s planning, said Lawrence’s lower wages are making the city a less attractive place to live compared with the Johnson County suburbs where people can routinely make more money.

McClure said the city needs to pay heed to the Census numbers and begin planning for slower population growth. He said the city currently is allowing more retail and residential development than the population can absorb. He said that’s creating high vacancy rates and a host of economic problems.

Some city commissioners, though, draw the opposite conclusion. Commissioner Mike Dever said he thought high housing prices and a lack of jobs in the city may be responsible for a slowdown in population growth. He said the city has done too much in recent years to restrict the supply of housing, which has caused prices to rise.

“Some of this slowdown could be leftover impact from the last few years where we were not focusing on growing the community,” said Dever, who was elected to the commission in April. “All of this is an indication to me that we need to do better at providing more affordable housing and bringing more jobs to the community.”