A while back, I wrote a column wondering whether there was a secret White House doctrine dictating policy in the Middle East: the Doctrine of Two Years Too Late.

That doctrine was in full view this week when President Bush proposed steps to bolster moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and revive an Israeli-Palestinian peace process. If Bush had taken these steps in 2005, when Abbas was elected, I doubt the radical Islamic movement Hamas would have won Palestinian legislative elections, or taken control of Gaza.

Instead, the White House chose to ignore the peace process and squander its Mideast clout on Iraq. Now, pushed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Bush is belatedly trying to renew some Israeli-Arab engagement. But this proposal contains the same delusionary U.S. thinking that helped Hamas.

The White House proposes to provide U.S. funds to Abbas aimed at strengthening his secular Fatah movement in the West Bank and isolating Hamas in Gaza. Bush talks of “laying the foundations” for a Palestinian state by building strong West Bank institutions and rule of law.

Once this foundation is laid, Rice will chair an international “meeting” (not a conference) this fall, to review progress toward building nirvana on the West Bank. The meeting also is supposed to help Abbas and the Israelis in “bilateral discussions and negotiations” that will ultimately move toward a Palestinian state.

This is diplomatic blather of a dangerous kind. Why so?

First, this initiative is based on the fantasy that Abbas can secure and develop the West Bank under current conditions and provide Palestinians a clear alternative to Hamas. Abbas – at present – cannot deliver. Palestinians are shut down under tight Israeli security restrictions, which make it impossible for a Palestinian economy or institutions to function.

Abbas can rally Palestinians to oppose Hamas only if he offers them some concrete prospect of a viable Palestinian state in the long-term. He must also offer the prospect of an end to expansion of Israeli settlements on the West Bank.

Bush’s plan asks Israel to stop expanding settlements, but this request has been made before with no result. He calls for Palestinian reforms upfront, but offers no clear prospect of movement toward a state in the long run. The president’s proposal for the meeting contains no clear agenda for talks on core issues of statehood nor any specifics that might strengthen Abbas’ hand in rallying Palestinians against violence.

The conference idea was cobbled together so hastily that administration officials were still scrambling to figure out details, the Washington Post reported Tuesday. They didn’t even know yet where or when it would be held. Nor did they have any guarantees key Arab players would attend.

Compare this with preparations for the U.S.-sponsored Madrid peace conference in 1991. According to former U.S. Mideast negotiator Aaron David Miller, “excruciatingly careful preparations went on for nine months.” This vague announcement gives the impression that Bush is trying to distract attention from Iraq. Or trying to pacify America’s Sunni Arab allies – notably Saudi Arabia – whom Bush wants to rally against Iran.

But Saudi Arabia already proposed an Arab initiative that would trade regional recognition of Israel for Israel’s retreat to 1967 borders. Bush gave barely a mention to this idea rather than use it as a valuable base that could be modified.

So one must ask whether the administration is serious. Does Bush recognize that if prospects for a two-state solution die, Israel will face an awful choice? It can keep forcible control over more than 3.5 million disenfranchised Palestinians, who will inevitably become more radical, or it can give them the vote and cease to be a Jewish state.

“If the president of the United States does not believe the pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace is a top priority, how can we bring the energy and focus and necessary pressure to bear?” asks Miller, now at the Woodrow Wilson Center completing a book called “The Much Too Promised Land.”

At a time when Israelis and Palestinians have weak leaders, is this weakened American president prepared to put his remaining muscle behind an Arab-Israeli peace process? If not, this proposal is just hot air.