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Archive for Tuesday, December 25, 2007

McCain could make miracle comeback

December 25, 2007

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For those who believe in miracles, there is the legitimate possibility that John McCain could win the Republican presidential nomination. If so, he'll make Bill Clinton's comeback kid of 1992 look like a piker.

Of course, the Republican senator from Arizona needs a series of events to break his way, but things are moving in that direction.

Even the possibility that he could still win the nomination after being given up for dead by some of his own supporters potentially creates a movie-script scenario.

Remember, McCain entered the 2008 presidential race at the head of the pack.

The smart money said even though his maverick ways had alienated lots of conservative activists, in a party that normally nominated the early leader, McCain was the guy in the right spot at the right time.

But there was significant resistance to him in the grass roots, his early campaign was poorly managed and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani zoomed past in the polls while political insiders were knowingly declaring McCain's candidacy as good as dead.

In addition, he was tarred with being the presidential field's perhaps biggest supporter of an unpopular war in Iraq, and then he signed onto immigration-reform legislation that GOP conservatives considered amnesty - a four-letter word in Republican precincts.

By last summer, McCain's campaign was broke, amid predictions of his withdrawal from the race. Reporters were writing canned campaign obituaries to be ready when he actually pulled the plug.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the funeral. He was able to raise enough money to keep going, and the tide began to turn his way.

Now, that's not to say he has regained his front-runner status - far from it. But his nomination is no longer a pipe dream.

Most of all, the Iraq war has been going better. As one of the best-known supporters of President Bush's surge strategy, McCain's constantly blunt rhetoric that he would rather lose a campaign than lose a war is paying dividends, especially among Republicans.

And, as the campaign has worn on, none of the other candidates has closed the sale. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Giuliani have all had their opportunities, but failed to break away from the pack. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is now the hot candidate, but remains an unknown to most voters.

Simply put, none of the other contenders has yet to be meet the basic standard that Americans require of a president - that they can feel comfortable with a person in the Oval Office deciding whether to send U.S. troops into harm's way.

And, with combating terrorism an overriding issue, McCain's potential strength as a candidate is his public image of independence and experience, especially in national security matters. None of the other GOP contenders share his military background - he was a certified Vietnam hero - much less his years of foreign affairs experience in Congress.

To have a shot at the nomination McCain must win New Hampshire, whose primary he won in 2000 against George W. Bush. And it would be a lot easier for McCain to win New Hampshire if Romney loses Iowa, where Huckabee now leads. If Romney were to win Iowa, his current lead in his neighboring state might be too large for McCain to overcome.

McCain's advantage in New Hampshire is its primary is open to independents - among whom he did very well in 2000 - and in the Granite State that means political moderates. Most states limit their primary voting to party members only.

That's why former Democratic vice-presidential nominee and Connecticut independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman's endorsement of McCain, and support from both Manchester's Union-Leader and The Boston Globe - publications that rarely agree on anything, could matter.

If McCain, who currently runs second in New Hampshire polls, pulls off New Hampshire, he is well-positioned in South Carolina and Michigan, which come next.

He does not have the financial resources for TV ads as do some of the other candidates. But should he win New Hampshire, his political resurrection will provide the kind of story line that would almost certainly dominate the news coverage and provide the kind of momentum that could carry him to victory.

It would be the kind of story that Hollywood producers dream about.

Peter A. Brown is the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Comments

Speakout 6 years, 11 months ago

Certainly, I was disapointed that he lost the nomination to GWB in 2000. I think McCain is a much better leader and a THINKER, something we haven't seen in the Whitehouse for 7 years. McCain's problem is that he is for this war we are in. He didn't care that "W" lied his way into it, or that it is being fought for unknown reasons (well we really know). I was for him in 2000 but now I think I distrust him. His unfledgling support for "W" rings mistrust to me. And although I am not a democrat, I wish we could find a real leader. Again we may be voting for the lesser of the two evils like we have done for a long time, expecially if it is McCain v Clinton.

MrMister 6 years, 11 months ago

I don't think it is support for W as much as it is support for the millitary that he is displaying. regardless of the reason for the war, It would be certain disaster to just leave and let them fend for themselves after creating such a mess. we need to finish the job and then come home.

Richard Heckler 6 years, 11 months ago

McCain says he can win this BUSHCO war. Americans do NOT want to win this illegal war for oil control. Wars are not won ...they just end. McCain is not listening. Americans do not need war presidents. Diplomatic presidents are more important. Nothing is about 9/11/01 anymore it is about oil and oil pipelines. Taxpayers are getting ripped off.

Send the politicians to Iraq starting with Bush/Cheney. After all they started it they should fight it. Bush/Cheney lied from day one:send them to the front lines that they created. 1,000,000 dead Iraq people,4000 dead soldiers, approximately 20,000 - 30,000 disabled american soldiers plus 50 years disability pay and medical treatment puts the taxpayers close to a 2 trillion dollar war.

McCain is a part of the problem. Keating 5 is one more example: http://www.google.com/search?q=the+keating+five&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

Richard Heckler 6 years, 11 months ago

This is a Bush mess. We cannot clean it up. We should provide heavy equipment for the clean up not weapons.

Bush has taken sides and furnished weapons to the favorites of BUSHCO Oil and Saudi Arabia. The USA must leave and allow world intervention.... no more BUSHCO war president logic. Bush,Cheney and PNAC are sick people.

Speakout 6 years, 11 months ago

Merrill, I wouldn't argue with you on any of those points. I liked McCain better in 2000 and hated the thought of a Bush presidency. Can't we find other leaders? I hate to think that it could be Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton. This would positively ruin the USA. I am a veteran just like McCain, only I wasn't shot down. I am very patriotic but there has to be a line somewhere between diplomacy and out and out war. We took the wrong step first, although there was no need to take any step at all against Iraqis. Lets fight the real war with words and diplomacy. End the Palestinian/Israel war and the world will like us better. We must be fair and impartial. But how can we be when the special interest groups from the Israelis are pouring millions into the presidential campaign. No one wants to go out on a limb and say "ENOUGH" and withdraw funding for Israel so they have to sue for peace.

devieh 6 years, 11 months ago

blah blah blah,

guess who gets the most money from active military persons.

one hint, it's not mcain.

republicrats, demopublicans, you're all the same. still believing in a party that left you so long ago.

here comes the north american union. can't wait till the sunday edition of the ljw costs 2 ameros.

BigAl 6 years, 11 months ago

Kozakid, nice whitewash but W's daddy got him in the Air National Guard when the waiting list was long. Even then, "W" skipped out on meetings. W's military service is suspect and questionable at best. Clinton was a draft dodger. The only difference is that he didn't have his daddy to cover for him.
McCain is a genuine American hero.

BigAl 6 years, 11 months ago

Kozakid.... back in the day, it was next to impossible getting into the National Guard. If you choose to believe that GWB didn't have help, you are living in a dream world.

BigAl 6 years, 11 months ago

kozakid (Anonymous) says:

It would be a bit interesting to see McCain run as the GOP nominee. I would love to see what excuse(s) the Democrats would employ when arguing that military experience no longer matters in a presidential race


It would be far more entertaining to watch how the republicans flip-flop on their support of McCain after watching Bush/Rove/Cheney put him through their slime machine back in 2000. Rove even went so far as to question McCain's military service. Rush Limbaugh actually laughed at McCain on his radio show. Real classy guys. Unlike his fellow Republicans, I am a Democrat that highly respects John McCain.

Richard Heckler 6 years, 11 months ago

Our choices are being controlled by the special interest political parties,the media and corporate special interest money. How is it all candidates are not allowed to participate in every debate? Why does any candidate stand by this crap? That is why I promote firing 95% of incumbents. Returning the lions share of incumbents over the past 30 years has not made much of anything better. Protection of corporate america from the real free market is basically what has transpired which has proved to be unfair and anything but healthy.

The primary caucus approach leaves much to be desired and cost way to much special interest money. What do people in Iowa and New Hampshire know that we don't? What makes this special? There is a lot about the current election system that does not mean much. So who cares what a newspaper thinks about who we should vote for? Why should voters give a damn?

The news media and corporate america do NOT need to decide who OUR candidates should be for local,state or federal level representation.

The media takes in a ton of cash during our election periods and play a huge role in selecting candidates for all sides of the aisle. Then THEY decide who should participate in televised debates as if no one else matters to the voters. Yes they also seem to decide which issues are important to voters and many times miss the mark. The media has become a large part of the special interest takeover of our process as if they know what is best for all of us. Voters support this takeover by voting for those candidates who also spend the most money and the question is why?

Campaigns go too long,spend way too much money and do not necessarily provide the best available. It is up to us to stop the nonsense at the voting booths on the 2008 ballot. Not voting sends the wrong message and changes nothing.

Lets's demand a new system and vote in Fair Vote America : http://www.fairvote.org/irv/ Demand a change on the 2008 ballot.

The big money candidates are more beholden than ever to corporate special interests due to the very long nature of campaigns. How do they have time to do the job they were elected to do? We need public financing of campaigns. Citizens cannot afford special interest money campaigns for it is the citizens that get left out.

http://www.publicampaign.org/

devieh 6 years, 11 months ago

well ron paul served as a surgeon in the airforce so i think he knows a thing about preserving live and the armed forces

MountainLion413 6 years, 11 months ago

I do not want my comments to be taken as an endorsement, but as a military veteran, I'd like every person here to just carefully consider this question:

Out of all the candidates currently running for President in 2008, is there anyone who personally knows better than John McCain how much the next Commander-In-Chief will be asking of the men and women in the Armed Forces?

Consider: What would happen if every person took THAT question into the voting booth with them in 2008?

blackwalnut 6 years, 11 months ago

McCain might make a comeback because the other Republican candidates are so terrible.

How could anyone support the Republican party after the mess they made of America?

McCain is a warmonger just like the rest of the Republicans.

BigAl 6 years, 11 months ago

Sorry kozakid but my post was accurate, supported by the posting of max1. In addition, Rush Limbaugh actually had a song that he played that critized McCain. Like I said in an earlier post, you live in a dream world. It is time to take off the blinders.

MountainLion413 6 years, 11 months ago

"Plus, McCain has the unusual characteristic among war-supporting Republicans-he's actually served and suffered in one."

Very well said, bennyoates.

I've never voted for a Republican for President [so far], and I've been voting in Presidential elections starting in 1972, the year I was one of the last Americans drafted into the military.

But that one true statement made by bennyoates says something about John McCain, and those who want him as the next President. He personally knows what he is talking about when he speaks of the war. And he is the most solid person the Republicans have going for them in 2008.

Whether you love McCain or you hate him, NO ONE can get away from his personal experience of the horror of war. He knows what he's talking about.

However, even if he is nominated, he will head up a party carrying a lot of negative baggage from these past seven years of the Cheney administration.

But, if nominated, he will also be the Democratic nominee's worst nightmare.

MountainLion413 U. S. Navy Veteran

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