It’s too soon to judge Democratic Congress

Democratic congressional leaders and their labor allies held a big Capitol Hill rally last week to hail the increase in the minimum wage, their first 2006 election platform item to become law.

On Wednesday, they staged a signing ceremony to mark completion of action on a package of post-9/11 homeland security proposals. And they’re working on extending congressional ethics laws and a popular children’s health care program.

Meanwhile, action is also proceeding on other bills they pledged to pass – cutting interest on college loans, reducing oil company subsidies and expanding stem cell research – though President Bush vetoed the stem cell measure and says he may do so on the children’s health care plan.

This recent rush of action – and the accompanying publicity campaign – is designed to counter the fact that public approval of Congress remains very low, below 30 percent in most surveys. That’s an even worse showing than Bush is registering these days, and Republicans are gleefully dusting up the old “do-nothing Congress” campaign that minorities have often used against the majority.

But GOP optimism may be premature.

It’s easy to see why the public is turned off: Democrats promised they’d make a real difference.

And despite action on some measures, they have neither changed the bitterly partisan tone of politics in Washington nor made progress on the single biggest factor in their victory: public opposition to the war in Iraq.

Here are some reasons.

A congressional majority isn’t necessarily a majority.

That’s especially true in the Senate, where it takes 60 votes to debate something, let alone pass it. With just 51 seats – one occupied by ailing Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota, who has not been in the Senate all year – the Democrats can’t pass anything without Republican support. It’s a bit easier in the House, where the rules allow the 30-seat Democratic majority to pass controversial measures.

So the House can vote to set a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, but the president’s allies can block such efforts in the Senate.

Even an unpopular president has clout.

Though Democrats can muster a majority if united, they can mostly only enact bills Mr. Bush will accept. During his first six years, Bush vetoed one bill, expanding stem cell research.

This year, he’s vetoed one on stem cell research and one on Iraq. And he has threatened to veto the children’s health measure and any appropriations bills that exceed his budget. Most vetoes would probably stick, because Democrats won’t be able to muster the two-thirds to override them, but the resulting clashes could create political issues for 2008.

Congress is out of sync with the public on Iraq.

The recent bipartisan Battleground Poll indicated that the top complaint with Congress is that the Democrats have given in too easily to Mr. Bush. But Senate Democrats can’t force the president’s hand without more Republican support. And while GOP senators are increasingly critical of the president, most are not yet willing to take that step.

Everyone is playing politics.

Senate Republicans are using the same obstructionist tactics the Democrats used last year, then complaining that the Democrats aren’t getting anything done.

Bush is griping about the failure of Congress to pass appropriations bills – the House is actually doing better than the Senate – even though last year’s GOP Congress never passed most of them, either.

And Democrats refuse to vote on Iraq plans with more bipartisan support, lest they give Republicans cover by letting them vote for something that looks better but has little practical effect.

In this climate, it’s easy for Republicans to brand the Democratic Congress a failure. “They have blown the opportunity they were given after the 2006 election,” said a GOP analysis in the Battleground Poll.

But several polls show that congressional Republicans have an approval level 10 points lower than the Democrats and that Democrats remain ahead on which party voters want to control Congress and on most major issues, especially Iraq, health care, energy, Social Security, corruption and jobs.

Many Republicans remain pessimistic about 2008. They know it’s still early and that it will take more than six slow months on Capitol Hill for voters to favor reversing last November’s verdict.