Washington, D.C. ? Drivers may find gasoline a little cheaper this summer compared with last, despite a 64-cent-a-gallon jump since January.

The Energy Department said Tuesday that the recent sharp rise in gasoline costs is likely to slow in the coming weeks with prices averaging $2.81 a gallon over the vacation driving season, about 3 cents lower than last spring and summer.

But the Energy Information Administration forecast is anything but assured.

Only a month ago, the agency said it thought the cost of regular-grade gasoline would peak in June, averaging $2.67 for the month, a price already eclipsed last week.

The latest forecast calls for prices to peak with an average $2.87 a gallon for the month of May, then decline. Last summer’s peak was an average of $2.98 for July.

“We think the forecast is about on track,” said Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesman for the American Automobile Association. He said based on current market trends, he doesn’t see another summer of $3 gasoline nationwide.

Prices have soared beyond $3 in each of the last two summers: in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina that disrupted Gulf Coast supplies and last July when the Israeli invasion of Lebanon caused crude prices to spike to $76 a barrel with $3-plus gasoline quick to follow.

The forecast assumes no new international crisis this summer.