Amid record fundraising, presidential race still open

After months of intensive campaigning, record fundraising and unusually high voter interest, the 2008 presidential campaign has lost its early front-runners on both sides, throwing the races wide open.

Far from clarifying things, last week’s tally of first-quarter fundraising totals dispelled the air of inevitability that the favorites – Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona – spent years trying to create.

But enough doubts surround each of the leading challengers to prevent any from breaking loose and emerging as the candidate to beat. And enough questions remain about the contours of the race – including which states will vote on which dates and whether anyone else jumps in – that the only certainty appears to be many more months of grind-it-out campaigning.

“A year ago, there was a clear Clinton scenario, a clear McCain scenario” for winning their respective party nominations, said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of a nonpartisan campaign newsletter in Washington.

“The question was whether someone would challenge them. Now it’s clear other candidates have caught the public’s attention, caught donors’ attention. The result is a pair of races that are both very, very competitive.”

The 2008 contest always promised to be a fierce one, with no president or vice president running for the first time in decades. More than a dozen candidates are competing on both sides and together they have raised about $130 million in the first three months of the year, more than ever.

In Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states, Democratic candidates have been drawing unusually large crowds, typically outnumbering those who come to see the Republican hopefuls. And it is not just curiosity seekers turning out for Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who would respectively become the first female and first black president.

During March in Las Vegas, Democratic strategist Gail Tuzzolo booked a room for 60 people to hear former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., speak on a Saturday morning. More than 300 showed up, and that was before news of his wife’s renewed cancer diagnosis stoked interest in Edwards’ bid.

Another benchmark is the money raised by the two sides. For the first time since careful record-keeping began in the 1970s, the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls collectively outraised the Republicans, by about $80 million to $50 million in the first quarter of the year. While few expect Democrats to enjoy that kind of financial edge through November 2008, the totals were evidence of the energy and enthusiasm flowing their way.

While money is just one gauge of support – and not the most reliable, history has shown – last week’s fundraising figures represented something tangible for political insiders to parse. The result was a broad consensus: that an already competitive contest has grown even more scrambled.

Clinton set a fundraising record, pulling in about $26 million between January and March. However, even with her political brand name and the backing of many party heavyweights, she barely surpassed the $25 million collected by Obama, who is making his first try for national office and already has twice as many donors. Significantly, many of them gave relatively small amounts, well below contribution limits, meaning they can give again.

The third candidate in the Democrats’ top tier, Edwards, raised a credible $14 million. More important, he sits atop polls in Iowa, the first caucus state, and edged past Obama in a new survey to place second behind Clinton in New Hampshire, host of the first primary. Still, by his own admission, Edwards is treading untested ground by seeking the White House at a time his wife is fighting incurable cancer.

The picture on the Republican side is even more complicated as a result of McCain’s third-place finish in the initial round of fundraising.

“We had hoped to do better,” campaign manager Terry Nelson conceded.

The Arizona senator, who has essentially been running for president since he lost the GOP nomination in 2000, raised $12.5 million, compared with nearly $21 million for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and $15 million for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.