Many people thought this would be the administration in which U.S. relations with Cuba finally changed for the better.

Perhaps it was because President Bush had a reputation as a free trader before he entered the White House. Perhaps it was because there was support for expanded ties in Texas’ business community. And perhaps it was because more parts of the country favored them than opposed them.

Whatever the reason, some Bush backers predicted he would ease restrictions on U.S. trade with Cuba and open the way for an influx of American goods and personnel that would provide both economic and political benefits.

After all, as we learned in Eastern Europe in the 1980s, Western economic influence can spur political progress.

But it hasn’t happened. The political lure of Florida and its outspoken anti-Castro community continues to dominate administration policy, especially given the state’s key role in putting Bush in the White House.

Indeed, not only has there been no liberalization, but the administration has tightened enforcement of the economic embargo that has been in effect since Fidel Castro seized control of Cuba in 1959 and has reduced contact between Cuban-Americans and their family members back home. What’s worse, the administration continues to make self-defeating decisions on Cuba.

The most recent is its decision to bar a Cuban baseball team from coming to the United States for the 16-nation World Baseball Classic this March. If maintained, this will undercut what could be an exciting pre-season extravaganza and also threaten future U.S. hopes of hosting both winter and summer Olympic Games.

It also prevents yet another opportunity to expose Cubans, who have lived under Castro’s Communist regime for more than four decades, to life in the Free World.

The initial reason for the baseball ban was the administration’s determination to make sure that the economically hard-pressed Cuban government didn’t benefit financially. Each participant is due to get 1 percent of revenues, and the winner 5 percent.

But the Cuban Baseball Federation called the administration’s bluff, announcing it would contribute any revenues to Hurricane Katrina’s homeless victims.

That has yet to satisfy the Bush administration, though baseball officials continue to explore ways to make it possible for a Cuban team to participate.

Meanwhile, the administration’s zeal in enforcing the embargo now has riled some of the very Cuban-Americans for whom it has tailored its policy.

Earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security sent home 15 Cuban refugees who made the 90-mile crossing in a battered ship and landed on the pilings of a Florida Keys bridge. Because the bridge isn’t connected to land, the spot failed to meet the standard under which refugees who land in the U.S. are allowed to stay, but those picked up at sea are sent home.

The incident, based on strict adherence to a 10-year-old policy designed to prevent a massive influx of refugees, underscored the absurdity of the current policy. It also triggered sharp criticism from some Florida GOP Cuban-American lawmakers, including Sen. Mel Martinez.

The stated goal of U.S. policy is to starve Cuba economically to put pressure on the Castro regime. But the main victims may be Cubans who live in Cuba.

And in another seeming contradiction, the fact that farm exports are allowed despite the trade embargo already has made the U.S. one of Cuba’s top 10 trading partners. Such sympathetic allies as Venezuela, its major oil supplier, and China top the list.

The collapse of the old Soviet Union means that Cuba has long since ceased to be a military threat to the rest of the Western Hemisphere. But economic conditions are helping produce leaders sympathetic to Castro’s anti-U.S. attitude, most notably Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Another could emerge this year in Mexico’s presidential election.

Meanwhile, the United States is missing its chance to increase its influence within Cuba. The more trade and the more travel, the more Americans can show Cubans what they’re missing.

Ultimately, change will come, since the 79-year-old dictator can’t live forever.

But it won’t happen as long as the Bush administration feels that the most important aspect of its relations with Cuba is to keep Florida in the GOP column.