Washington ? Oil prices appear headed back toward $70 a barrel, economists say.

While last summer’s price spike sparked outrage in Congress and hurt sport utility vehicle sales, it caused only a hiccup in motor-fuel consumption. And for now, with demand back on the rise, the economy seems capable of absorbing uncomfortably high prices.

Analysts warn, however, that consumers and businesses could be just one major supply disruption away from more serious consequences.

Sherry Cooper, economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said the ramifications of $3-a-gallon gasoline would be “more mild” the next time around “because we’re getting kind of used to it.”

But while the gas-price sticker shock may be wearing off, Nomura Securities chief economist David Resler fears a more subtle fuel-related angst settling in among consumers.

“There is the pessimistic notion that this is not going to go away and that’s going to have a more lasting impact on driving habits and behavior, I suspect, than we’ve seen so far,” Resler said.

In that context, a hypothetical supply disruption that jolts oil prices to $80 or higher and keeps them there for an extended period – say, three months – could result in “a substantial falloff in discretionary spending” that snowballs into a serious slowdown.