There’s a lot for farmers to like about the thought of a warmer Kansas winter.

Chores are easier. Tractors start more quickly. Livestock don’t need as much feed to stay warm.

“You don’t have to cut as much wood, either,” said Bill Wood, a Douglas County extension agent.

But a warm spell this winter wouldn’t be all blessings, he said.

“There are some advantages in freezing and thawing for the soil,” Wood said. “We’d like to have at least one good cold snap to kill bugs and diseases so they don’t carry over from year to year. … Surely we’ll get to zero somewhere.”

Surely we will. But there might be fewer freezing days in Kansas this winter than in most years.

“The outlook in Kansas looks to be milder than normal winters,” said Mike Halpert, head of forecast operations for the climate prediction center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Jim Marsh, a veterinarian from Winchester, gives livestock medicine for runny noses and colds that will help them get through the winter Friday morning on the J-ranch near Perry. Meteorologists are predicting warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean will lead to a mild winter in Kansas, which is a mixed blessing for farmers.

The reason: Warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. And yes, Kansas is as far away from an ocean as is possible in the United States.

“That’s true,” Halpert said. “But a lot of times these types of ocean (warming) can affect the jet stream over North America.”

Cause, effects

Halpert didn’t pin the cause of ocean warming on global warming, however; the Atlantic, he said, is in the midst of a decades-long cycle of warming and cooling temperatures.

“We’re in the heart of the (cycle) that favors warmer temperatures,” he said.

That warmth, he said, could average out to about 1 degree Fahrenheit per day compared to winters between 1971 and 2000. That 1 degree, he said, could make a big difference – to farmers and in heating bill payments.

And that’s significant, because heating costs are expected to rise significantly this winter.

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“A normal winter, we would anticipate bills being 50 percent higher than last year’s,” said George Minter, a spokesman for Aquila, the natural gas utility that serves Kansas.

A warmer winter, he said, might make it easier for low-income customers to keep up with their heating bills; reduced demand for natural gas might even reduce wholesale prices.

“From our standpoint we hope it would be a warmer winter,” Minter said. “The strain on the customer is an issue that goes along with higher gas prices and higher usage.”

Bills, still

But Linda Lassen isn’t holding her breath. She’s the human resources director for Penn House, the social service agency that runs the Warm Hearts program to provide heating-bill assistance for low-income Lawrence residents.

“A lot of people are still paying off old gas bills,” she said. “I really don’t know how (the winter) is going to hit us right now.”

But she expects to see more people seeking help paying bills. A warmer winter, she said, probably won’t offset the rise in natural gas prices.

Back on the farm, though, it’s not difficult for Wood to weigh the relative merits of warm and cold winters. Getting in the fields is a lot more pleasant when it isn’t freezing.

“Probably warmer would be” the choice, Wood said, “if you had your choice.”