Washington ? The Army appears likely to fall short of its full-year recruiting goal for the first time since 1999, raising longer-term questions about a military embroiled in its first protracted wars since switching from the draft to a volunteer force 32 years ago.

Many young people and their parents have grown more wary of Army service because of the likelihood of being dispatched on combat tours to Iraq or Afghanistan, opinion polls show. U.S. troops are dying at a rate of two a day in Iraq, more than two years after President Bush declared that major combat operations had ended.

The Army says today’s economy offers attractive alternatives to many high school and college graduates.

The recruiting statistics appear to bear that out. Officials said Wednesday that although the Army would not release its numbers until Friday, it fell about 25 percent short of its target of signing up 6,700 recruits in May. The gap would have been even wider but for the fact that the target was lowered by 1,350.

The Army said it lowered the May target to “adjust for changing market conditions,” knowing that the difference will have to be made up in the months ahead.

The Army also missed its monthly targets in April, March and February – each month worse than the one before. In February it fell 27 percent short; in March the gap was 31 percent, and in April it was 42 percent.

A photograph of a U.S. Army soldier is shown in the window of a U.S. Army recruiting station in Seattle's Central District in Washington. The Army appears likely to fall short of its full-year recruiting goal for the first time since 1999, raising longer-term questions about a military embroiled in its first protracted wars since switching to a volunteer force 32 years ago.

“It’s like having a persistent drought,” said Daniel Goure, a military analyst at the private Lexington Institute. “At some point when you have drought conditions you have to institute water rationing, and that’s what you potentially face in the military if it goes on long enough. You would get to a stage where you don’t have enough people to staff your organizations.”

Prior to February, the last time the Army had missed a monthly recruiting goal was May 2000.

The Army National Guard and Army Reserve are even farther behind in recruiting this year.

The shortfalls have led to speculation that the government might be forced to reinstitute the draft. There is little support for that in Congress, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has ruled it out.

Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty, spokesman for the Army’s chief of personnel, said in an interview that the Army remains cautiously optimistic that it will make up the lost ground this summer – traditionally the most fruitful period of the year for recruiters – and reach the full-year goal of 80,000 enlistees.

“One number matters: 80,000,” Hilferty said.