Poll: Bush’s popularity lower than last two-term leaders

? President Bush’s standing with an American public anxious about Iraq and the nation’s direction is lower than that of the last two men who won re-election to the White House – Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton – at this point in their second terms.

But solid backing from his base supporters has kept Bush from sinking to the depths reached by former presidents Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter and Bush’s father. Truman decided not to run for re-election. Nixon resigned. Carter and the first President Bush were defeated in re-election campaigns.

President Bush flashes a thumbs-up after declaring the end of major combat in Iraq as he speaks aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the California coast in this May 1, 2003, file photo. Recent polls suggest the continuing war in Iraq is one of the factors in the sagging popularity of the president.

“This president should be glad he’s not running for re-election,” said Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion analyst from the American Enterprise Institute. “But the president is clearly holding his base. It’s very important for him to keep the base support in terms of getting things done.”

Indeed, Republicans in Congress already are starting to fret about the 2006 election. If Bush’s approval ratings sink lower, more of them may be unwilling to go along with his initiatives for fear it could cause backlash for them with voters.

Bush’s job approval in recent polls ranges from the low- to mid-40s. It was 42 percent in the latest AP-Ipsos poll. His ratings on everything from Iraq to the economy to Social Security and other issues are at their lowest levels so far.

Reagan was at 57 percent at this stage of his presidency and Clinton was at 61 percent, according to Gallup polling at the time.

Bush may have a hard time pushing up his numbers because issues like the violence in Iraq and gas prices are largely out of his control.

Presidents with low ratings

Other presidents have seen their political bases dissolve, in Gallup poll figures:

¢ Harry Truman’s approval rating dipped to 24 percent in the late spring of 1951 after he removed popular Gen. Douglas MacArthur from command in Korea.

¢ Richard Nixon’s approval dropped to 31 percent in August 1973 as the war dragged on in Vietnam and revelations of administration misdeeds kept spilling out of the Senate Watergate hearings.

¢ Jimmy Carter’s approval plunged to 29 percent in the early summer of 1979 amid economic troubles and news of problems with new Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini.

¢ The first Bush’s approval sank to 32 percent in July 1992 as his presidential rivals Bill Clinton and Ross Perot gained momentum in the campaign and the jobless rate rose.