A generation ago, President Richard Nixon faced an unwinnable war in Vietnam and public pressure to withdraw. So he gradually turned the fighting over to the Vietnamese, withdrawing American troops, while vowing to protect the country's freedom.
A similar scenario may be unfolding for similar reasons in Iraq.
Continuing combat deaths are eroding public support, the military faces growing personnel and budget strains and Republican fears are spreading as next year's elections approach, increasing pressure on President Bush and his advisers to say when the U.S. military role will end.
Bush indicates nothing has changed with regard to his determination to "stay the course" in Iraq. The troops won't come home "before the mission is complete," he said last week in Grapevine, Texas.
While "we're making progress," he told the American Legislative Exchange Council, "it makes no sense for the commander in chief to put out a timetable (for bringing U.S. troops home). If we put out a timetable, the enemy would just adjust their tactics."
And the White House has rebuffed members of Congress who are calling for a withdrawal date.
But signals from top military leaders in Iraq are quite different.
Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander, recently predicted "some fairly substantial reductions" in the 138,000 American troops by next spring or summer.
The top U.S. Mideast commander, Gen. John Abizaid, reportedly told a secret Pentagon briefing that 30,000 troops will be withdrawn from Iraq by next spring - if conditions are right.
The official definition of "right conditions" seems to cover two areas.
First, far greater progress in training Iraqi military and police forces to replace Americans. Congressional leaders in both parties have disputed administration claims of how many Iraqis are currently capable of pulling their weight in combat or on police duty.
Second, maintaining the schedule for creating Iraq's new constitutional government, starting with the Monday deadline for completing the new Iraqi constitution and December's elections.
But beyond these frequently cited matters, it's clear that underlying domestic political concerns are increasingly affecting the future U.S. role.
They include these factors:
l Support for the war and the president's conduct of it continues to fall. A Newsweek poll released last weekend showed that only 34 percent approved of Bush's handling of the war, the first time the figure fell below 40 percent, and 61 percent disapproved.
l The number of Americans killed in Iraq continues to creep upward, dramatized by incidents in which multiple numbers of U.S. service personnel have been killed.
The most dramatic example: the recent deaths of 16 Ohio Marine reservists from a single battalion, including nine of the 14 killed in a roadside bombing last week.
l A Democratic veteran of Iraq nearly won one of the country's most Republican congressional districts in a special election in southern Ohio. That raised concerns among GOP lawmakers, though the race was marked by special circumstances, such as a poorly run GOP campaign and a scandal-ridden state Republican administration.
If that seat is not safe, many others might be in jeopardy next year, despite a drop in competitive U.S. House seats.
l The military's increasing difficulty in meeting recruitment goals for active forces and Reserve and National Guard units, despite expanded incentives. So far, the administration has resisted congressional proposals to increase the size of the active military to cut the strain on reservists and Guard members, who comprise a significant share of the U.S. force in Iraq.
l A related factor is the continuing fiscal drain on the federal budget, which the administration has continually low-balled and hidden in its generally rosy forecasts.
By the time the U.S. military role ended in Vietnam, the South Vietnamese government was too weak and scandal-ridden to survive against the thousands of Communist troops who had infiltrated the country and survived years of U.S.-led efforts.
Bush and his advisers are determined to avoid that scenario at the end of the U.S. military role in Iraq. But the political clock is definitely beginning to tick.
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