Washington — With a constitutional referendum approaching in Iraq, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld on Tuesday delivered the grim prediction that has become the Bush administration's standard message before each political milestone there: Violence would spike as insurgents try to derail the march toward democracy.
At a Pentagon briefing, Rumsfeld said Americans should expect an increase in insurgent attacks before Iraqis vote on a new constitution in October. Iraqi politicians face a deadline next week for drafting the constitution.
At the same time, Rumsfeld painted the picture of an increasingly desperate foe. While avoiding pronouncements that the insurgents are losing steam, Rumsfeld likened them to Japanese kamikazes and the Nazi SS before the Japanese and German surrenders in World War II. He said the increased violence should "not necessarily be considered an accurate gauge of the enemy's future," given the political progress in the country.
Rumsfeld's comments echoed those made by Bush administration officials before previous political milestones in Iraq. In the weeks before the June 2004 handover of power to Iraqis and the January 2005 parliamentary elections, officials predicted that guerrillas would step up attacks, but that Iraqi political progress would eventually cripple the insurgency.
Yet even as Rumsfeld spoke Tuesday, Air Force Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged that the ability of insurgents to carry out deadly attacks has remained unchanged for months.
"The overall capacity of what they're able to do on any given day ... is about the same," Myers said.
Rumsfeld expressed optimism, however, that by adopting a new constitution, Iraqis would be further emboldened to turn against an insurgency that has attacked U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians with increased sophistication.
"As the political progress goes forward and as the economic progress goes forward and as the Iraqi security forces increasingly ... take over more and more responsibility for the security of the country, we'll find that the persuasiveness or the effect of the insurgency will diminish," Rumsfeld said.
With the October constitutional referendum in the offing, the Pentagon may bulk up the U.S. troop presence in Iraq -- probably by delaying the planned departure of troops this fall.
With 138,000 troops in Iraq nearly 2 1/2 years after the fall of Baghdad, many in the Pentagon worry about the strain on the all-volunteer military - especially as soldiers return to Iraq a second and third time. Myers said that such concerns are unfounded.
"We're good for several years," he said.
Rumsfeld said that the ability of U.S. troops to one day leave Iraq depends in part on the behavior of Iraq's neighbors - notably Iran and Syria. Rumsfeld has criticized both countries for failing to stem the flow of insurgents into Iraq and for attempting to meddle in Iraqi politics.
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