Washington ? While a new intelligence estimate offers a gloomy assessment of Iraq’s future, President Bush talks instead about brighter days ahead under a new prime minister and the promise of free elections. “Freedom is on the march,” he told a campaign rally Thursday.

Iraq is a daily theme of Bush’s campaign speeches, often a springboard for attacking Democratic rival John Kerry. But Bush does not speak about the more than 1,000 U.S. deaths, the highly publicized kidnappings, executions and beheadings, or the dark scenarios outlined in the highly classified National Intelligence Estimate that was presented to him in late July.

The new report offers a sobering picture of Iraq’s future in terms of political, economic and security conditions.

In a worst-case scenario, it envisions developments pointing to a civil war among Iraq’s three major populations, the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.

At best, the experts said, Iraq will have a tenuous stability. A middle-ground estimate envisions increased extremism and fragmentation that impede efforts to build a central government and adversely affect efforts to democratize the country.

Several administration officials confirmed the existence of the intelligence report, which triggered criticism of Bush from the Kerry campaign.

Bush has been consistently giving “a very rosy scenario as to how well Iraq was going,” Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., said in a telephone conference call arranged by Kerry’s staff. “This report throws a large bucket of cold water over those roses.”

Graham, the former chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, urged the White House to release the report so voters could decide whether they wanted to continue with a president who had “gotten us into the quagmire of Iraq with no either plan for entry or exit.” The White House said the report would not be released.

Kerry, in a speech to National Guard veterans, said Bush was trying to persuade voters with “a fantasy world of spin” rather than telling the truth on Iraq.

“Two days ago, the president stood right here where I’m standing and didn’t acknowledge that more than 1,000 men and women have lost their lives in Iraq. He didn’t tell you that with each passing day, we’re seeing more chaos, more violence, indiscriminate killings,” Kerry said.

White House communications director Dan Bartlett accused Democrats of unfounded pessimism. “President Bush gets his briefings from commanders on the ground. He has reason for his optimism because of the enormous amount of progress we have made,” Bartlett said.

Iraq is a troublesome issue for Bush, with voters worried about the violence and deaths and doubting that Bush has a strategy to deal with the problems.

Bush’s credibility has been strained by the U.S. failure to find any weapons of mass destruction, whose purported existence in Iraq was the foundation for the U.S. rationale to invade.

Bush, campaigning by bus in Minnesota, did not mention the pessimistic assessments of the newly disclosed intelligence report, which came to light amid a surge of attacks that have killed more than 200 people since last weekend.

“In Iraq, there’s ongoing acts of violence,” Bush said. “This country is headed toward democracy. There’s a strong prime minister in place. They have a national council. And national elections are scheduled for January. It wasn’t all that long ago that Saddam Hussein was in power with his torture chambers and mass graves. And today, this country is headed towards elections. Freedom is on the march.”

His comments were in line with the generally upbeat tone of his remarks on the campaign trail. “We will help new leaders to train their armies, and move toward elections, and get on the path of stability and democracy as quickly as possible,” Bush told the Republican convention early this month. “And then our troops will return home with the honor they have earned.”

The Democratic Party, in a new television ad attacking Bush’s credibility, asked, “How can you solve problems when you won’t even admit they’re there?” The ad shows Bush on the deck of an aircraft carrier declaring an end to major combat in Iraq under a “Mission Accomplished” banner in May 2003.

“The president has made very clear that the stakes are high,” Bartlett said. “If there is a failed state in Iraq, it would embolden our enemy and it would have huge consequences for the region.”

He said the intelligence report “was not something that altered the strategy but reinforced the need to make sure that we have the resolve to see it through.”