Washington ? With a speech today at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pa., President Bush is scheduled to kick off an intensified drive to reassure Iraqis, Americans and the rest of the world that the occupation will end despite the presence of more than 100,000 U.S. soldiers and a 1,000-strong U.S. embassy.

Bush’s chances for success in Iraq, and perhaps also in the November presidential election, hinge on whether Iraqis accept the interim government that’s to replace the U.S.-led occupation on July 1, U.S. officials and experts agree.

“We’ll have an active role. But the truth of the matter is, Iraq will be run by Iraqi citizens,” Bush said in a May 18 interview with the Iraqi newspaper al Zaman.

An interim government that’s seen by most Iraqis to be making its own decisions, not taking orders from Washington, would have a chance to draft a democratic constitution and guide the country to parliamentary elections by early 2005, the officials and experts said.

Either way a gamble

Continued political chaos, mounting casualties and growing costs in Iraq, however, could erode public, congressional and international support for U.S. policy and spark growing calls for an American withdrawal.

“The United States … is gambling regardless of what it does; if a prolonged military presence threatens to delegitimize the new Iraqi government, a premature and abrupt withdrawal could create a security vacuum encouraging disorder, even civil war,” warns a new study published by the Strategic Studies Institute at the War College, where Bush is to appear today.

The report compared the U.S. wars in Vietnam and Iraq and found that “the differences greatly outnumbered the similarities.”

Nevertheless, it said, Vietnam holds important lessons for Bush because the United States faces a dilemma in Iraq similar to the one it faced in South Vietnam 40 years ago. No local government is likely to survive without massive American military support, but that support undermines the government’s legitimacy.

“In Iraq, as in South Vietnam, political success will require creation of (1) a government regarded as legitimate by the great majority of the country’s inhabitants, and (2) security forces capable of protecting the new political order,” the study said.

“In Iraq, the United States is starting from scratch because no real national government and only fledgling security forces exist. Moreover, any government the United States fosters in Iraq will be tainted in the eyes of many Iraqis by virtue of its American association, especially if the security situation continues to require a large and highly visible U.S. military presence.”

Lower profile

As that’s dawned on more officials in recent months, the administration has begun trying to lower the American profile in Iraq.

The administration’s latest course change in Iraq began last month, when it agreed that United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, in consultation with Washington and leading Iraqis, should select the members of the interim government.

Brahimi is expected to announce his choices for a president, two vice presidents, a prime minister and 26 Cabinet members by the end of the month.

Secretary of State Colin Powell said the United States would pull its 135,000 troops out of Iraq if the interim government asked it to, although he added that he thought there was little chance such a demand would be made.

Another critical component of Bush’s transition strategy is a new U.N. resolution that administration officials hope will help dispel the widely held belief in Iraq and the Arab world that the interim government will be another U.S. tool.

The resolution, which is the subject of furious debate in the U.N. Security Council, would declare an end to the 15-month U.S.-led occupation, proclaim the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty and give international recognition to the interim government.

It also will “make it clear that Iraqi assets, particularly oil assets, belong to Iraqis and would be managed by them,” Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 18.

The critical status of U.S. troops after June 30, and how much authority the interim government will have over its own security forces, remains unsettled, however.

Armitage told the Senate committee that an American general would retain overall command, but that Iraqi forces will be able to “opt out” of military operations if they choose not to participate.

Many experts, however, doubt that the new Iraqi army and other security forces being trained by the United States and other countries will be able to take over any time soon.