Douglas County Commissioner Charles Jones is the first to admit he’s not an economist. That’s why, he says, he may not know the technical term for the phase the Lawrence economy is in right now.

But he knows what the noneconomists would call it.

“We’re in a bit of the doldrums,” Jones said.

The numbers economists put together seem to back him up. Almost every key economic indicator for Lawrence is nearly unchanged from a year ago.

The area’s unemployment rate checked in at 4.8 percent in February, the most recent month for which statistics were available. That’s down slightly from 5 percent in February 2003. The actual difference in the number of people unemployed in the county is exactly 20 — 2,851 people in February 2004 compared to 2,871 a year earlier.

The total number of jobs in the county also was nearly unchanged, falling less than 1 percent — dropping from 50,700 in February 2003 to 50,400 in February 2004.

Sales tax revenues, the best gauge of retail activity, didn’t vary much either. For all of 2003, sales tax numbers in Lawrence increased by 1.7 percent. Through February of this year, they’re up 1.9 percent from the same period a year ago.

“That’s pretty stagnant,” said Luke Middleton, an economist with Kansas University’s Policy Research Institute. “It is growth, but it is nothing compared to the late 1990s when we were having growth of 5 percent to 9 percent a year.”

Positive signs

THE DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHEAST CORNER of 31st and Iowa streets is near fruition. Best Buy and Home Depot anchor the development. 31st Street runs left to right across the picture; Iowa Street runs across to left side.

But there are encouraging signs for the future, leaders say. Serologicals Corp. has started hiring workers for its East Hills Business Park plant that will employ 40 people at an average wage of $47,000 per year when it opens later this year.

Several other expansions were announced in the past 12 months, including:

• Amarr Garage Door Group, which will add 80 new employees;

l Kinedyne Corp., which added 51 new jobs to accommodate a two-year contract to manufacture cargo nets for the military;

VALERIE BURRELL, of Bed Bath and Beyond, straightens the shelves of the houseware store. Bed Bath & Beyond is one of the new stores that occupy the former K mart building at 31st and Iowa streets.

• Sauer Danfoss, which added 45 jobs after the company closed an Iowa plant and moved the work to the city;
• and API Foils, which transferred 18 jobs from its Lenexa facility to Lawrence.

But to continue the one step forward, one step back theme of the year, Honeywell International closed its Lawrence plant in 2003, transferring 189 Lawrence employees to a newer facility in Olathe.

“I think how I would describe the year is that we found some encouragement even while facing some continuing challenges,” said Larry McElwain, the outgoing chair of the Lawrence Chamber of Commerce.

SABRINA LIN, LAWRENCE, hangs on the monkey bars at the South Park playground. Her sister, Maggie, looks on.

One number that was truly positive was housing sales. Douglas County homebuyers created a record year in 2003, with sales topping 2,000 homes for the first time in history.

“I think the Lawrence economy is still strong,” said Mike Maddox, president of Intrust Bank in Lawrence and chair of the Lawrence-Douglas County Economic Development Board. “Housing continues to set records, and that is a very positive sign.

“Relatively speaking, I think Lawrence did very well during the downturn. Look at some of the other cities in the state. It is a night-and-day difference between Lawrence and Wichita, for example.”

Middleton agreed Lawrence likely fared better than the state on average. And he said while the past year’s worth of numbers hadn’t been stellar, they also weren’t sullen.

“The economy here isn’t bad,” Middleton said. “It isn’t dropping, but we just haven’t seen any growth on a large scale. I would say that ‘wait-and-see’ is a good way to describe the attitude businesses and consumers have right now.

“The good news is that the economy isn’t bottoming out anymore, but the bad news is that we’re still near the bottom of the barrel.”

More talk

But McElwain said maybe the right way to measure progress this past year was not in numbers but words. He said one of the greatest accomplishments of the year was that more people were now working together on economic development and growth.

“I think we have talked more than we have in years,” McElwain said.

That talk has helped strengthen the relationship between city commissioners and the business community, McElwain said, which is important because there was concern about growth and development following last year’s city commission elections, in which a trio of “smart growth” candidates won seats.

“I think because of all the rhetoric of the election, there was quite a bit of uncertainty about how much this commission would be willing to communicate with other groups in town,” McElwain said. “But I think they have proven that they are willing to communicate. I think we’re all beginning to connect the dots.

“I think it has been an encouraging year because we have had adversity, but there’s been good dialogue and we’ve worked hard to work together.”

Kansas University graduates walk down Campanile Hill during commencement ceremonies in May 2003.