Some moderate Republican in Kansas are hinting about the possibility they could win back control of the Kansas House this year. And while it’s hard to map out exactly how that would happen, a look at the contested primaries coming up Tuesday shows a real possibility that, together with Democrats, they could win back the kind of working majority they had under Govs. Bill Graves and Kathleen Sebelius

Based on the number of conservatives facing primary challenges Tuesday, and the amount of money their challengers have raised, it’s conceivable that moderates could unseat as many as four or five conservatives in the primaries.

Unlike in biology, where every plant or animal falls into an identifiable species, Republican politicians are not so easy to classify. But if you look at two of the more defining votes in the last two years – the tax cuts of 2012; and the school finance bill of 2014 – it’s fair to say that Gov. Sam Brownback and his allies have a solid 63 or 64 votes, just barely enough to form a slim majority in the 125-member House.

There are currently 27 or 28 “moderates” in the House, and 33 Democrats. So it would take a swing of at least 18 seats away from conservatives to give moderates a majority, but only a handful to give them a working majority with Democrats on certain issues.

One way of identifying conservatives is by their endorsements: Kansas Chamber endorsements point to fiscal conservatives; Kansans for Life endorsements indicate social conservatives; and both endorsements could put someone in line for a committee chairmanship. Indicators of a moderate challenger can include an endorsement by the Mainstream Coalition’s political action committee, the Kansas NEA, or information gleaned from their campaign websites.

So here is a look at some races to watch on Election Night where conservatives could lose seats because moderates have outdone them in fundraising, or where conservatives hold a fundraising advantage but the challenger has still raised a respectable amount of money.

First, four conservative seats in danger of flipping to moderates:

District 16, Lenexa: Incumbent Amanda Grosserode is running for a third term. She’s endorsed by both the Chamber and KFL, and she voted for both the tax cuts and school finance bill. She faces two challengers, only one of which has raised any money: Jameia Haines, who has the Mainstream endorsement. Haines out-raised Grosserode leading up to the primary, $14,404 to $13,730.

District 30, Olathe: Rep. Lance Kinzer, who virtually defines social and fiscal conservatism in Kansas, is stepping down this year, leaving an open seat that has the potential of flipping to a moderate. In a statement announcing he would not seek another term, Kinzer endorsed Randy Powell to fill his seat, but Powell may be in trouble. His opponent, moderate Ron Worley, has raised $11,900 since Jan. 1, compared to Powell’s $7,810.

Make no mistake. Olathe is a conservative town, and Kinzer represented a conservative district. It’ll take more than money for a moderate to win there. But the ability of a moderate to out-raise a conservative says there’s a serious challenge afoot.

District 65, Geary County: This district is currently held by Rep. Allan Rothlisberg, who has said the U.S. Department of Education is not constitutionally authorized, and reportedly once said “Women over 50 don’t need gynecological services anymore.” Those kinds of remarks, and many more like them, seem to have gotten him in trouble. His more moderate challenger, Lonnie Clark, a Vietnam veteran and one-time assistant athletic director for the Kansas City Chiefs, has out-raised the incumbent, $8,191 to $2,825.

District 72, Newton: Incumbent Rep. Marc Rhoades had a tragic session in 2014. He started the session as chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, often called the second most powerful position in the House. But he finished as a backbencher after resigning that post in protest after other House leaders in March refused to back a school finance bill that included a massive expansion of charter schools.

He now faces Barbara Bunting, who boasts a number of high-profile Democrats like former Lt. Gov. Tom Docking (husband of Paul Davis’ running mate Jill Docking) and former Sen. Christine Downey Schmidt. among her contributors. From Jan. 1 through July 24, Bunting raised $23,075 to Rhoades’ $12.766.

Other races to watch

In addition to those, there are a handful of other races worth watching where GOP primaries could affect the balance of power between moderates and conservatives:

District 21, Johnson County: Retired physician Barbara Bollier, a moderate from Mission Hills, has held the seat for two terms and is probably the odds-on favorite to hold it in this, the wealthiest of enclaves in Johnson County, which once boasted such residents as Ewing Kauffman and Russell Stover. She raised more than $28,000 before July 24 and went into the final stretch with nearly that much in the bank. But conservative challenger Neil Melton brought in more than $10,000, in part with the help of the Kansas Chamber and KFL.

District 50, north Topeka/Shawnee County: The redistricting process of 2012 created a staunchly conservative district north of the Kansas River in Shawnee County. That enabled conservative Josh Powell to win a seat in an area, part of which had previously been represented by Democrat Annie Tietze. Powell supported the school finance bill this year and has both the Chamber and KFL endorsements.

But he faces a serious challenge this year from attorney Fred Patton, a former president of the Kansas Association of School Boards and business associate of the late former Sen. Elwaine Pomeroy, a moderate who served in the 1970s and 80s. As of July 24, Powell had a narrow lead over Patton in fundraising, $9,530 to $9,336. But Patton reported a larger war chest going into the final weeks, $20,087 to $12,399.

District 64, Clay-Riley Counties: Rep. Vern Swanson, who voted against both the tax cuts and school finance bill, is retiring after four terms. But his wife Susie is vying to inherit the seat. She faces a challenge from former Kansas State Board of Education member Kathy Martin, a conservative. Martin has raised a respectable amount of money, but Mrs. Swanson is outperforming her by more than two to one: $14,316 to $6,440.

District 99, Wichita: Rep. Dennis Hedke has been a solid conservative in the House since winning the seat in 2010. In 2013 he cosponsored a bill to ban local governments from spending public funds on sustainable development. He’s facing self-described moderate Randy Banwart who raised and spent about $10,600 in the primary, compared to $17,500 raised by Hedke.

District 93, Wichita: This one just appeals to the interests of every political junkie. Freshman Rep. George F. “Joe” Edwards II is a conservative who cosponsored the Second Amendment Protection Act, which makes it a felony under certain circumstances for federal law enforcement officers to enforce federal gun laws in Kansas, and a fetal heartbeat bill that would ban abortions before some women even know they’re pregnant.

But Edwards ran into PR problems during the 2014 session when he reported to Topeka police that he’d been mugged in a downtown hotel after attending Gov. Brownback’s State of the State address in January, even though security video showed him entering his room alone that night. That story resurrected an earlier controversy from 1997 in which Edwards denied involvement in a pair of prostitution-related arrests, claiming that the person involved was a different George F. Edwards, II.

He is now being challenged in the GOP primary by John Whitmer, a candidate who appears to be every bit as conservative as Edwards, but who has called on Edwards to admit that he made up the mugging story and apologize for lying about the prostitution arrests.

Edwards, who still has endorsements from the Kansas Chamber and KFL, has not done so, but Whitmer is ahead in fundraising: $7,161 to Edwards’ $5,350.