Will Kansas Republicans take back the governor’s office?

Can they hold the Senate seat for another six years?

Suddenly, neither answer looks certain.

But history suggests caution before counting them out. After all, for decades Republicans have weathered all sorts of political storms while still maintaining a strong grip on the state’s politics.

Currently they hold both Senate seats, three of four congressional districts, enjoy supermajorities in the Legislature and a decided advantage in voter registration.

Nevertheless, Democrats have good reasons to think this year’s different.

First, they are energized. After absorbing another devasting loss to Trump, they watched as he tried to dismantle higher education, the arts, and parts of the federal bureaucracy. This intensified their resolve.

Recall the last midterm under Trump. Fully engaged, Democrats helped Laura Kelly capture the governor’s office, propelled Sharice Davids to victory over a four-term Republican incumbent and flipped four state House seats in Johnson County.

Nationally, they won back the House, netting 41 seats, the largest Democrat gain since Watergate.

By contrast, Republican enthusiasm is fading.

In an anti-establishment cycle, they are linked to a divisive president and responsible for economic conditions that most voters believe are headed in the wrong direction.

As a result, they are backpedaling. Roger Marshall broke from Trump on tariffs and ICE while Ty Masterson removed photos of himself with the president on his campaign website.

It’s bad enough that the national party recently sent VP Vance to shore up Marshall’s sagging campaign.

Second, suburban communities across the state contain large voting blocs of moderate Republicans and independents that have pulled away from the GOP during the Trump era. These are the key battlegrounds where elections are won and lost.

Third, when voter turnout drops in midterms, as it always does, the electorate becomes wealthier and more educated, two groups that vote Democrat.

This explains why Kansas Democrats outperformed expectations in the post-Dobbs abortion referendum and the recent state Supreme Court amendment vote. Off-year, lower turnout contests are tailor-made for high propensity voters, which are increasingly Democrats.

Finally, Trump appears detached. Preoccupied by foreign affairs and legacy projects, he seems oddly resigned to the prospect of midterm defeat.

Even when he pivoted to the unusual midterm party convention, the effort lacked urgency and felt out of touch. To borrow one of his favorite digs at Jeb Bush, Trump himself appeared “low energy.” That matters because mobilizing his base is the only hope Republicans have of avoiding major losses.

If Republicans fail to reclaim the governor’s office and defend their Senate seat, 2026 may well be remembered as the year Kansas politics reached an inflection point. A moment when the GOP armor finally cracked, highlighted by the loss of a Senate seat long regarded as a symbol of Republican strength and control.

But if Republicans hold on, Kansas Democrats will have failed to take advantage of their best chance in decades, raising real questions about their capacity to be an effective opposition party.

— Mark Joslyn is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.