As we celebrate Father’s Day, we still face sobering evidence about how a lack of male role models can derail a child’s outcome. This is particularly acute for young males, aka “future fathers.” The data is grim. Children in father-absent homes have greater risk for poverty, behavioral problems, physical abuse, drug/alcohol abuse, obesity, dropping out of school and suicide.

For boys, it’s worse

Per the author and professor Scott Galloway, losing their male role model means they are more likely to be incarcerated than graduate school. A molested 15-year-old boy is ten times likelier to commit suicide than the same 15-year-old girl. School-age boys tend to be emotionally and mentally weaker than female counterparts, making them susceptible to hyper-masculinity posers in the manosphere who replace traditional masculine virtues like moderation, compassion and restraint with misogynistic ideations. Boys have also pulled back from college, which carries huge societal implications, as pointed out by Kansas professor Mark Joslyn.

Today, three main data points underlie fatherless outcomes — cratering marriage rates (and birth rates by proxy), world-record single-parent household formations and delayed adulthood markers.

Since 2020, the share of married couples are at their lowest levels ever across all demographic groups (except Asian men/women) hovering around 47% after cresting at 79% way back in 1949. That is a big reason why 1 in 4 U.S. children do not have a father at home; a staggering outlier, triple the world average of 7%. And if they do, one study shows boys only spend 30 minutes weekly in one-on-one conversations with their dad, compared to 44 hours in front of a video monitor.

Likewise, full-on “adulting” for young adults (ages 25-34) is fleeting. According to a recent U.S. Census study, achieving all five milestones of adulthood — living independently, completing formal education, gainful employment, getting married and living with a child – was the norm 20 years ago. Now the norm is only the first three economic milestones. On top of that, males had a negative association for achieving all five markers. In a nutshell, young adults are prioritizing economic security over starting a family.

The study also found homeownership costs and living in metro areas (to achieve economic security) reduced chances of family formation milestones. Basically, young adults have off-ramped to Coachella and Mykonos vacations in lieu of homebuying. To paraphrase the pragmatism of my 30-year-old daughter living in a major metro market, “it feels like housing prices are going up faster than I can save, so what’s the point in saving? It’s a pipe dream. We joke we’ll be 50 before we own.”

If the assumption is that more traditional family formations will lead to fewer father-absent homes, then housing affordability is a great place to start. Unaffordable basics — housing, healthcare, groceries, gas, childcare — might be a more reliable prophylactic than Trojan. One would think connecting affordability and family formation dots will catch more fire in conservative strongholds like Kansas.

Other corrective policies have not shown much here or abroad. Tax breaks often overshoot the emerging adult. Pronatalism strikes a little dystopian. Mental health is important but lacks scale.

Another thought…

As a child of a fatherless home back when it was less fashionable, a big brother, stepfather, coaches, teachers, and neighborhood dads all had my back daily pointing me in the right direction to the life I lead today as a father, stepfather, husband, and professional.

To “father figures” everywhere, I urge you to also pay it forward.

— Bill Fiander is a university lecturer in Kansas specializing in public administration, urban planning, and state/local government.