photo by: Creators Syndicate

Keith Raffel

A Democratic president announces he will not run for reelection and throws his support to his vice president. The vice president in turn wins over a majority of the delegates before August’s Chicago convention even without picking up any delegates in the primaries. The fall campaign will be conducted against a manipulative and deceitful opponent. Campus protests rage as war grinds on across the ocean.

Am I talking about 2024? Yes, but I’m also describing 1968. As Mark Twain is reputed to have said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Let’s see how.

In 1968, it was Lyndon Johnson, a longtime senator and former vice president, who decided not to run for reelection. In 2024, it was Joe Biden, also a longtime senator and former vice president, who bowed out. Both men had historically productive presidential terms in their first elected terms. In Johnson’s, laws were passed forbidding job discrimination and protecting minority voting. Biden oversaw passage of laws to rebuild infrastructure, reduce gun violence and clean the air, while rallying international support against Russian aggression.

In a nationally televised address, Johnson told the American people that he would withdraw from the presidential race to concentrate on “the awesome duties of this office — the Presidency of your country.” He threw his support to his vice president, Hubert Humphrey. It was too late for Humphrey to enter any of the 11 primaries that were held that year, but he won the nomination anyway after the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy.

After a disastrous debate performance, Biden wrote he was standing down to “focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.” He, too, withdrew too late for his vice president to participate in primaries, but within two days of his announcement, Vice President Kamala Harris had won enough support from delegates to assure her of the nomination.

Humphrey was left to oppose the Republican nominee Richard Nixon, while Harris will face Republican nominee Donald Trump. The Gallup Poll showed Nixon leading Humphrey by 2% on July 31, 1968. The Real Clear Politics average on July 22, 2024, showed Trump ahead of Harris by 2% as well.

The economy was strong in 1968, but the country was roiling in the aftermath of riots after Martin Luther King’s assassination and protests against the war in Vietnam. Today, wage growth and employment are strong, but there’s widespread resentment of postpandemic inflation and illegal immigration.

While the race in July 1968 between Humphrey and Nixon was neck and neck, by early September, Gallup showed Nixon leading by 12%. What happened? The “Battle of Michigan Avenue” happened, that’s what. In violent confrontations broadcast by the major TV networks, aggressive police tangled with unruly protesters against the Vietnam War on the streets of Chicago. Public opinion favored law and order over long-haired dissidents.

The irony is that protesters against the Vietnam war in 1968 got the opposite of what they wished for. Republican Richard Nixon beat Democratic candidate Humphrey, who promised a ceasefire in Vietnam. Over 20,000 members of the American armed forces lost their lives in Vietnam during the Nixon presidency.

The U.S. Palestinian Community Network and the Chicago Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression among others are planning protests at the Democratic Convention next month. One anonymous Democratic senator has warned those going to the convention, “Wear your body armor.”

If these protests do turn violent, they could boomerang as well by turning voters from Harris to Trump. In his last term, Trump attempted to impose a ban on Muslims entering the United States. In regard to the current Israel-Hamas war, he’s advised Israel to “get it over with fast.”

During the 1968 campaign, Nixon also made two secret deals to ensure his election. He conspired to “monkey wrench” plans for a ceasefire in Vietnam by promising South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu he’d give him a better deal. He also promised Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina he would appoint Supreme Court justices who supported states’ rights and would thus slow desegregation in the South.

Trump is nowhere near as good at keeping secrets as Nixon was. At a private Mar-a-Lago dinner, he told oil industry executives he would reverse environmental rules established by the current administration. Word leaked out about his concurrent suggestion that the executives contribute a billion dollars to his campaign in order to get this political win. Trump did manage, though, to keep some news of alleged sexual escapades out of the papers during his 2016 campaign through a deal with the National Enquirer to “catch and kill” such stories.

Does 1968 provide any lessons for this year’s Harris campaign? Of critical importance is ensuring that convention protests are nonviolent. Her campaign needs to support the Secret Service and Chicago police in efforts to maintain civility. The campaign needs, too, to stress what a Trump win would mean to the aims of Palestinian Arab supporters.

If Nixon’s secret meddling with South Vietnam had become public, he would have assuredly lost the presidency. The Harris campaign can try to do its best to find any secret deals of the National Enquirer ilk, but I’m not sure whether turning up another scandal will matter. The American electorate knows what it’s getting with Trump: someone found a sex offender and a felon by two different unanimous juries. What others try to hide, he brazens out.

In 1968, Humphrey lost the popular vote by the third closest margin since 1900. I will be watching closely to see what Harris does to avoid following her Democratic predecessor’s example.

— Keith Raffel is a columnist with Creators Syndicate.