So Many Forecasts

I can’t tell you how many times somebody has asked me “Why is your forecast different than that other guy’s?” It is a fair question, but one that will take a little explanation.The process works like this:The National Weather Service is constantly taking measurements of the atmosphere that can include the surface temperature, wind, pressure as well as taking soundings. That’s when they send a balloon into the atmosphere to take measurements vertically. After they gather that information, they send it to a super-computer in Washington, D.C., that will grind through the information and provide us with a number of computer models that are _supposed_ to tell us what the weather is going to do.There is one problem … certain models might perform better in the winter than in the summer, or one model may pick up moisture better on the east coast while another model may pick up moisture better in the mountains. Each model has some strengths along with a number of weaknesses.That is where the meteorologist comes in. While each model has its own biases, we take our own experiences and use that to form a forecast. The beauty of that here in Lawrence is that we can focus on one area to make a more complete forecast for you.