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Posted by George Diepenbrock July 8, 2008 at 10:44 a.m.

Projections list Roberts as safe; 'no clear favorite' in Boyda race

Polls[(Harris News Service) Poll shows Roberts ahead:][1] Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius recently told reporters in Denver that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama could win Kansas in November's presidential election. ... But a Web site, www.fivethirtyeight.com, which utilizes polling data to simulate election outcomes, suggests that Obama has a difficult task before him. Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts' probability of besting his likely Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Jim Slattery, is at 88 percent. But the site's current national projection is that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama wins the White House over Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.[(CQPolitics.com) Analyst lists Boyda's seat as 'no clear favorite' versus Ryun or Jenkins:][2] New York 25 was a close call over some of the five Democratic-held districts with races currently rated as tossups, such as Kansas 2, a longtime Republican stronghold where freshman incumbent Nancy Boyda faces a tough re-election fight; Louisiana 6, another conservative bastion where Don Cazayoux will be defending the seat he won in a May 3 special election; and Florida 16, where Tim Mahoney , another first-term Democrat, must disprove Republican claims that his 2006 win was a fluke resulting solely from the sex-related scandal that forced the resignation of his predecessor, Republican Rep. Mark Foley. But the trend so far this year has clearly favored the Democrats. The vast majority of rating changes made by CQ Politics this year have moved races in the Democrats' direction. Campaign Tidbits[(Roll Call, subscriber access)][3] On several occasions this spring, staff members in the office of Rep. Dennis Moore, D-Kan., used their House e-mail accounts to circulate political information about the Senate campaign of former Rep. Jim Slattery, D-Kan., in violation of House rules and, potentially, federal law. In one case, a Moore staffer sent an e-mail urging recipients to "get out your checkbooks," which would appear to violate a criminal statute prohibiting soliciting federal employees for campaign contributions. Moore's office contends that the e-mails were simply mistakes by staff members and that the staffers have since been reminded of the House rules. As Slattery, who served six terms in the House between 1982 and 1994, prepared to join the Kansas Senate race in March, a Kansas City Star political blog reported that he was telling Kansas Democrats that he would run against GOP Sen. Pat Roberts. Moore's legislative assistant, Sarah Lochner, circulated that blog post in a March 12 e-mail, adding the message "This just in [from the blog] - get out your checkbooks!"[(KSNT, 27 News) Ad Watch: Political scientist analyzes Jim Ryun's primary ad:][4] Issues[(Topeka Capital-Journal) Physicians ask patients to lobby for Medicare cuts to be overturned:][5] A vote on the bill stopping the cuts and sending additional money to doctors is expected again Wednesday. As it approaches, Cotton-O'Neil physicians have asked patients to lobby their representatives in Congress, particularly Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., who voted against fast-tracking the Legislation before the break. Brownback was the only member of the state's delegation to vote that way. ... In a statement last week, Brownback said he supports "fair payments for treating patients in Medicare," but couldn't support the particular bill brought to the Senate floor. President Bush has threatened to veto the legislation, which would cut spending on private Medicare Advantage plans. Other Medicare legislation Brownback considers a "bipartisan compromise" wasn't brought up for a vote, said Becky Ogilvie, the senator's press secretary. ... Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., has received many calls about the legislation, which he supported, said Sarah Little, his spokeswoman. Likewise, the office of Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Kan., has received hundreds of calls, said Liz Montano, Boyda's spokeswoman. "This is a train wreck that absolutely must be fixed," Montano said. The 10.6 percent in cuts came automatically under a formula, but lawmakers have blocked similar cuts in the past. [(Seattle Post Intelligencer) Boeing's allies on tanker: Hurry up, Pentagon:][6] The Pentagon is facing an Aug. 17 deadline to respond to a blistering report from government investigators that the Air Force made "significant errors" in tapping a team of Northrop Grumman and EADS to build a fleet of refueling tankers instead of awarding the $35 billion contract to The Boeing Co. But Boeing's powerful advocates in Congress are urging the Air Force to act quickly and announce whether it will reopen bidding on the contract, which was awarded in February to Los Angeles-based Northrop and the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co., the parent of Airbus. The lawmakers say they soon might try to force the military to rebid the contract -- especially if the Air Force doesn't come up with a plan quickly. "If the Air Force doesn't get it right," said Rep. Norm Dicks, D-Wash., "I'm going to reserve all my options ... to stop this thing from going forward." ... Dicks and another Boeing backer, Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-Kan., are considering adding such a rider to next year's defense spending bill. A mandate from Congress could come with other requirements. For instance, Dicks said that if there is a new bidding process, he wants the Pentagon to consider the lifetime costs of the proposed tankers in addition to their sticker price. That could give an edge to Boeing in a new competition, because the Airbus tanker design had been based on its larger A330 commercial jet that could require more fuel. Boeing has said the Pentagon would save $30 billion in fuel costs over 40 years if it chose its tanker entry, based on the smaller 767. "The life-cycle cost issue hasn't been properly taken care of," Dicks said. "The Air Force has got to take this into account." Tiahrt would go even further. He has introduced separate legislation - along with Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., and Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash. - that would mandate a new competition, with the Air Force required to consider a range of factors, including the claim that Airbus receives government subsidies, and the national security implications "of awarding contracts for critical capabilities to foreign" businesses. Under the Tiahrt-Roberts measure, the secretary of defense also would be required to calculate any lost tax revenue as a result of the deal. [1]: http://www.hutchnews.com/Localregional/note2008-07-06T20-53-42 [2]: http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002911219 [3]: http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_1/news/26403-1.html [4]: http://www.ksnt.com/news/state/21638234.html [5]: http://cjonline.com/stories/070808/loc_301148859.shtml [6]: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/369715_tanker05.html