Some number of people in Kansas — it’s not really clear how many — are eagerly awaiting a decision from the Shawnee County District Court about whether Democrats will be required to name a candidate for the U.S. Senate.

In the meantime, a new look at the polls in that race shows why it matters.

A group of Kansas academics who take turns writing op-ed pieces under the heading Insight Kansas gathered all of the “independent, scientific, noncandidate-paid-for” polls in the major races, averaged them and came up with this:

With Democrat Chad Taylor on the ballot, independent candidate Greg Orman leads Republican Pat Roberts by an average 1.25 percentage points. That’s pretty close to being a statistical dead heat.

That’s the average of four polls, all taken after Taylor dropped out of the race. And two of those polls taken in mid-September — by Rasmussen Reports and Fox News — showed Roberts ahead by 1 and 2 points respectively.

But take Taylor off the ballot and ask people to choose between Roberts and Orman alone, and Orman’s lead expands to an average 7.75 points.

Bob Beatty, a political science professor and part of the Insight Kansas group, said it’s clear that when Taylor dropped out of the race in early September, the bulk of his support went to Orman. And if Taylor, or any other Democrat, is put back on the ballot, it takes support away from Orman.

“Because there’s always going to be Republicans and Democrats who vote the party line,” Beatty said. “If any Democrat is on that ballot, it takes away some votes from Orman.”

That’s precisely what Republicans stand to gain in the lawsuit pending in Topeka, and it shows pretty clearly why the Democratic Party has no particular interest in trying to put someone else on the ballot.

Beatty said the academics at Insight Kansas will continue putting out the polling averages each week between now and Election Day, looking mainly at the five most recent polls in each race. Here’s what they’re showing in the other major races right now:

• Governor: Democrat Paul Davis leads Republican Gov. Sam Brownback by an average of 5.4 percentage points. “The amazing thing there is how consistent it’s been since June,” Beatty said. “They all show Davis with a 4 to 7 point lead.”

• Secretary of State: Republican incumbent Kris Kobach has a razor-thin lead of 1.8 points over Democrat Jean Schodorf, a former Republican state senator. In February, the first major poll, by Public Policy Polling, showed Kobach with a 7-point lead. But that’s been narrowing in more recent surveys. Still, of the eight polls conducted in that race, only one has shown Schodorf with any kind of lead. That was SurveyUSA poll in early September that had her up by 3 points.

In addition to Beatty, Insight Kansas includes political science professors Burdett Loomis at Kansas University; Mark Peterson at Washburn University; Chapman Rackaway at Fort Hays State University; Michael Smith at Emporia State University; and Ed Flentje at Wichita State University.