Taylor may still be critical to U.S. Senate race

Although Democrat Chad Taylor has dropped out of the race and terminated his own campaign, he still may be a deciding factor in the outcome of the U.S. Senate race in Kansas.

A new Fox News poll released Thursday shows that when voters are asked about the preference among all four named candidates in the race, Roberts has a narrow lead, 40-38 percent, over independent candidate Greg Orman, with Taylor still picking up 11 percent of the vote. Libertarian candidate Randall Batson showed up at only 2 percent, with 8 percent still undecided.

But as of this afternoon, the Kansas Supreme Court is still trying to decide whether Taylor’s name should remain on the ballot. When asked to choose among the two main candidates still actively campaigning, the Fox News poll shows Orman ahead, 48-42 percent.

The poll was conducted jointly by Anderson Robbins Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican polling company. The survey of 604 likely voters included both land line and cellphone respondents and claimed a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

For Roberts, those numbers are slightly higher than other recent polls that have shown him getting 34-36 percent of the vote, depending on which candidates are included in the question.

The Kansas Senate race has generated the kind of national attention that is unusual in Kansas, in part because of the odd series of events surrounding Taylor’s candidacy, but also because it could greatly affect the Republican Party’s chances of taking control of the Senate.

Taylor won a contested primary Aug. 5 and secured the Democratic nomination. But with little fundraising success, and polls suggesting Roberts could be vulnerable this year, other Democrats reportedly pressured him to leave the race to make a clearer path for Orman, a wealthy businessman who is able to fund much of his own campaign.

On Sept. 3, Taylor filed a letter of withdrawal with Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. But Kobach has refused to accept the withdrawal, arguing that Kansas law requires the letter to contain a declaration that he would be incapable of holding the office if elected.

That’s the issue now pending before the Supreme Court.

Other polls have also suggested that leaving Taylor’s name on the ballot could greatly influence the race, despite the fact that he has said in an affidavit to the Supreme Court that he will not accept the job if elected.

A survey earlier this week by Public Policy Polling showed Orman ahead in the race, with or without Taylor on the ballot. But his margin was significantly wider in a hypothetical two-person race (46-36 percent) than in a four-person race that includes Taylor and Batson (41-34 percent over Roberts, with Taylor still getting 6 percent and Batson polling at 4 percent).