Drivers in Lawrence are paying an average of $2.681 per gallon for gasoline these days, up 19.4 cents from a month ago and 80.3 cents from a year ago.

And it’s only likely to get worse.

Government and industry forecasters say fuel prices look to continue their rise as spring turns to summer, as refineries switch over to producing specialty-blend fuels, drivers gear up for on-the-road vacations and the potential endures for any number of supply-restricting natural disasters or market-upsetting political moves.

“We’re going into summer, and the refineries have slowed down tremendously,” said Scott Zaremba, director of Zarco 66 Earth-Friendly Fuels, which has four stations in Lawrence and others in Olathe, Paola and Ottawa. “You assume they’ll take action to drive the price up. That’s what they do: They sell for a living.”

Just how high prices might go is an open question. The U.S. Department of Energy forecasts average prices for gasoline to be $2.84 per gallon this year, up from $2.35 a year ago.

“Average U.S. pump prices likely will exceed $3 per gallon at times during the forthcoming spring and summer driving season,” the department said in its forecast released this month.

AAA, which tracks average pump prices in Lawrence and elsewhere in the United States, has noted that today’s retail prices are the highest since October. AAA says the rise would be expected to slow, however, if per-barrel prices for crude oil were to stay close to $80, as expected.

Zaremba, who sells alternative and traditional fuels at stations at Ninth and Iowa streets, isn’t convinced that anyone can predict the future, especially when it comes to fuel prices.

“I wish we had a crystal ball to determine where the prices will be,” he said, “but we’d like to have them so people could (reliably) forecast what they’ll need when they go on vacation.”