Local housing market dealing for ‘slow recovery’

Average prices

Average sale prices of homes in Lawrence, with change from a year earlier, according to an annual market report compiled by McGrew Real Estate. For report details, visit LJWorld.com or AskMcGrew.com:

2009: $191,583, down 2 percent

2008: $195,858, down 3 percent

2007: $201,452, up 5 percent

2006: $191,818, up 3 percent

2005: $185,620, up 6 percent

2004: $174,445, up 4 percent

2003: $167,324, up 7 percent

The number of homes sold in Lawrence declined for the sixth consecutive year in 2009, but the slide shed some speed heading into 2010.

And that’s providing a qualified sense of relief, said Mike McGrew, chairman of McGrew Real Estate in Lawrence.

“There’s no question that at least in Lawrence we are nearer the bottom of the market than we’ve ever been, and so the upside potential is greater, probably, than it’s ever been,” McGrew said. “It’s like we’ve turned the clock back on prices four, five, six, seven years.”

“Deals are being made, and we’re glad to see that they are.”

A total of 981 homes sold in the city last year. It was the lowest total in more than a decade and an 8 percent decline from the previous year, when buyers snapped up 1,066 homes. But last year’s decrease paled in comparison to the 26 percent drop recorded in 2008.

While the pace of decline has slowed, the inescapable reality is that sales have dropped 44 percent since the market peak, of 1,749 recorded in 2003.

“My sense is we’re going to have a slow recovery,” said McGrew, nominated to be elected this year as treasurer of the National Association of Realtors. He projects increased sales in Lawrence this year but “a period of years” before a return to 2003 levels.

McGrew’s agency recently completed its annual report of the housing market, compiling historical data in a market that last year generated $187.9 million in residential sales, also the lowest in at least a decade.

New construction accounted for a relative handful of sales: 74, or about 7.5 percent of total transactions. Still, the average sale price of new homes rose 2 percent, to $267,443.